MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m)using different initialization schemes  

作　　者：Ren Hong-Li Wu Jie Zhao Chong-Bo Cheng Yan-Jie Liu Xiang-Wen 

机构地区：[1]Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2016年第1期60-65,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2015CB453203);the China Meteorological Special Project(Grant No.GYHY201406022);the LCS/CMA Open Funds for Young Scholars(2014)

摘　　要：The Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）is a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability（ISV）and has prominent impacts on the climate of the tropics and extratropics.Predicting the MJO using fully coupled climate system models is an interesting and important topic.This paper reports upon a recent progress in MJO ensemble prediction using the climate system model of the Beijing Climate Center,BCC-CSM1.1（m）;specifically,the development of three different initialization schemes in the BCC ISV/MJO prediction system,IMPRESS.Three sets of 10-yr hindcasts were separately conducted with the three initialization schemes.The results showed that the IMPRESS is able to usefully predict the MJO,but is sensitive to the initialization scheme used and becomes better with the initialization of moisture.In addition,a new ensemble approach was developed by averaging the predictions generated from the different initialization schemes,helping to address the uncertainty in the initial values of the MJO.The ensemble-mean MJO prediction showed significant improvement,with a valid prediction length of about 20 days in terms of the different criteria,i.e.,a correlation score beyond 0.5,a RMSE lower than 1.414,or a mean square skill score beyond 0.This study indicates that utilizing the different initialization schemes of this climate model may be an efficient approach when forming ensemble predictions of the MJO.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)预报是国际研究热点,我国尚处于起步阶段。近些年国际上MJO预报水平得到大幅提升,主要得益于包含海气耦合过程的气候模式的使用,这其中模式预报初始化和集合扰动生成方法至关重要。本文发展了适用于国家气候中心第二代气候预测业务模式BCC-CSM1.1(m)的MJO初始化方案,并在此基础上提出了基于不同初始化方案形成扰动的集合预报新方法,可以将MJO有技巧预报时效延长到约20天,为次季节-季节预报提供重要依据。

关 键 词：MJO initialization scheme ensemble prediction climate model 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]