“菲特”台风历史相似性分析  

Similarity Analysis on Typhoon Fitow with Historical Tropical Cyclones

作　　者：曹艳艳 姚日升 张建海 王武军 邬方平 

机构地区：[1]浙江省宁波市气象局,浙江宁波315012 [2]浙江省绍兴市气象局,浙江绍兴312000 [3]浙江省奉化市气象局,浙江奉化315500

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第1期113-119,143,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：宁波市自然科学基金项目(2013A610124);宁波市科技计划项目(2012C50044)

摘　　要：利用台风年鉴和浙江省气象站资料,从台风移动路径、影响季节、降水局地性、多个热带系统共同作用和后期灾害等方面,对2013年23号强台风"菲特"进行了历史相似性分析后得出以下结论:"菲特"与历史台风分别在上述五个方面中的一个或几个上具有相似性,同时又存在差异。气象业务工作中既要通过历史相似性来帮助做好台风预报,又要具体分析与历史相似个例的不同之处,更重要的是从多方面分析历史相似性,通过分析每一方面的相似程度和可能带来的风雨及灾害,同时综合应用数值预报提供的各类产品,才能更有助于提高台风预报服务的质量。Based on the typhoon yearbook and meteorological station data in Zhejiang province,the similarities of severe typhoon Fitow are analyzed with historical typhoons in track,affect season,local feature of precipitation,combined action of several tropical systems,and damage after landing. It is revealed that typhoon Fitow has one or more similarities with historical typhoon in the five aspects above,and also has difference. For meteorological operation work,historical similarity should be used to help making better typhoon forecasting,and difference between them should also be concretely analyzed. It is more important to analyze historical similarities in several aspects simultaneously. Through comparing the degree of similarity in every aspect and possible influence of wind,rain and disaster,meanwhile comprehensively using all kinds of numerical products,it will be more helpful to improve forecasting quality of typhoon services.

关 键 词：“菲特” 台风 暴雨 灾害 历史相似性 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]