1960-2012年宁夏强干旱时空格局及影响因素分析  

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Strong Drought and Its Influence Factors in Ningxia from 1960-2012

作　　者：张耀宗[1,2] 张勃[1] 刘艳艳[2] 张多勇[2] 周丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]陇东学院庆阳市沙漠化防治研究中心,甘肃庆阳745000

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第1期120-127,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20136203110002);国家自然科学基金资助项目(31460090);生态经济学省级重点学科(5002-021);国家社科基金一般项目(13BZS084);陇东学院青年科技创新项目(XYSK1501)

摘　　要：利用宁夏19个气象站1960-2012年降水、气温月数据,使用干旱指标SPEI,定义了干旱强度指数,对近50年宁夏及其4个气候区强干旱时空格局及影响因素进行了分析。得出以下结论:1960-2012年宁夏及四个气候区SPEI-12气候倾向率均小于0,干旱化趋势明显,干旱气候区干旱趋势大于半干旱气候区大于半湿润气候区。通过干旱强度指标确认强的干旱事件与《中国气象灾害大典·宁夏卷》、《宁夏水资源公报》中的重大干旱事件能很好的对应,强干旱事件在空间上由1980年代之前的区域规模发展到全省规模且强度不断增强。近50年气候暖干化是强干旱增多的主要原因。ⅡC区、ⅡB强干旱事件主要受升温作用影响,ⅠB区受气温升高、降水减少共同影响,ⅠA区主要受降水减少的影响。ENSO与宁夏强干旱有很好的对应关系,EL Nino事件的影响超过LA Nina事件的影响,ⅡC区、ⅡB受ENSO事件影响小,EL Nino和LA Nina事件的交替发生对强干旱事件影响大。Based on data of monthly rainfall and temperature of 19 weather stations in Ningxia from 1960 to2012,we use the SPEI to detect the drought trend. Spatial and temporal pattern of strong drought and the influenced factors in Ningxia and its 4 climate zone are analyzed and the following conclusions are got： the climate tendency rate of SPEI-12 was less than 0. It showed that drought trend were obvious in Ningxia and its 4 climate zone from 1960- 2012. The drought trend in arid zones was more obvious than semi-arid climate zone which was more obvious than in semi humid climate zone. The strong drought years confirmed by intensity indicators had a good correspondence with strong drought events noted by Ningxia Disaster Bulletin and Ningxia Water Resources Bulletin.Strong drought area was from regional scale to the scale of province from 1980 s. Warming and drying climate was the main reason for the increased strong drought. Strong drought events were mainly influenced by temperature increased in ⅡC and ⅡB Zone,ⅠB zone was influenced by temperature rising and precipitation decrease,ⅠA was mainly affected by precipitation reduction. The corresponding relationship between ENSO and strong drought was well,effect of EL Nino events was over effect of LA Nina events,ⅡB and ⅡC zone was no significantly influenced by ENSO events,EL Nino and LA Nina events occurred alternately had important influence on strong drought events.

关 键 词：宁夏 干旱强度 时空格局 SPEI 影响因素 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]