气候变化背景下我国城市高温热浪的风险分析与评估  

Risk Analysis and Assessment of High-temperature and Heat-wave Disaster in Chinese Cities Under the Background of Climate Change

作　　者：宋晨阳[1] 王锋 张韧[1] 白成祖 刘科峰[1] 龙强 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101 [2]河北省唐山市曹妃甸工业区气象局,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第1期201-206,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41276088);唐山市曹妃甸工业区专项(CQZ-2014001)

摘　　要：针对气候变化背景下高温热浪愈加频繁的变化趋势,从风险分析角度提出了高温热浪灾害风险概念模型,探讨了我国1983-2012年高温热浪频数和强度的变化特征;为解决风险评估建模时决策者难以有效评判的情况,构建了犹豫层次分析法(Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process,H-AHP)和逼近于理想解的排序方法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)相结合的高温热浪风险评估模型,并以华东地区6座城市作为承险体进行了分析验证。结果表明,所建模型能够合理构建高温热浪风险指标体系,得到与事实接近的量化评估结果,研究思想和方法途径可为其他气候灾害评估和风险防范提供参考。Aiming at the variation trends of high-temperature and heat-wave in the background of climate change,we considered a conceptual framework of high-temperature and heat-wave disaster risk from the point of view of risk analysis. We investigate the characteristics of frequency and intensity of high-temperature and heatwave from 1983 to 2012 based on Chinese terrestrial climatic data sets of daily records. In the interest of hesitant circumstances for decision makers,we build a model of evaluation combing Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process（ H-AHP） and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution（ TOPSIS）,which is eventually verified by analyzing six cities in the East China. It can be concluded that the model we constructed is efficient in hightemperature and heat-wave risk index system,and the result of evaluation is close to the reality,the thought-way can be referenced in other climate disasters assessment.

关 键 词：高温热浪 犹豫层次分析法 TOPSIS 风险评估 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]