主要部门污染物控制政策的温室气体协同效果分析与评价  

Assessment and Analysis on Co-benefits of Pollution Control and Greenhouse Gases Emission Reduction in Key Sectors

作　　者：顾阿伦[1] 滕飞[1] 冯相昭[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第2期10-17,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"节能政策的节水协同效益评价方法研究"(编号:71203120);国家科技部"十二五"科技支撑计划项目"国际应对气候变化中行业减排与市场机制中关键问题的支撑技术研究"(编号:2012BAC20B03)

摘　　要：工程减排、结构减排和监督管理减排是实现我国污染物减排的三个主要措施,近年来我国SO2的排放呈现出下降的态势,本文选取电力、钢铁和水泥这3个重要行业,测算了在"十一五"以来SO2的减排效果,以及由其带来CO2减排的协同效果。结果显示,"十一五"期间,3个主要行业减少污染物排放超过1 000万t,其中工程减少污染物排放超过700万t,结构减少污染物排放300万t。由此带来的协同效果显示,由于结构减排带来了超过7亿t CO2的减排,而由于工程效应减少污染物的同时带来的CO2增加500万t,因此总计带来7-8亿t CO2的减排。而"十二五"前两年减少污染物排放400万t,其中工程减少污染物排放350万t,结构污染物排放减少了40万t。由此带来的协同效果显示,由于结构减排减少了CO2排放1.74亿t,而由于工程效应减少污染物的同时带来的CO2的增加量为200万t,因此总计带来1.72亿t CO2的减排。结构减排和工程减排两种措施可以在行业内实现降低污染物的排放,但是其贡献程度由于行业的差异有所不同。"十一五"期间电力行业较多是依靠工程减排实现SO2排放的降低,而水泥和钢铁行业则更多是依靠行政命令如关停落后产能和机组实现污染物的减排,显示出电力行业通过技术实现污染物的减排,而其他两个行业则主要靠调整结构来实现减排。电力行业中的末端治理技术即工程减排贡献了大部分的污染物减排,但是与此同时由于末端治理技术会导致能源消耗的增加,即引起CO2排放的增加,因此污染物的协同控制效果较差,而钢铁和水泥行业的污染物减排则由于更多是通过结构调整的手段,如关停落后产能和机组,因此其协同效果较为显著。"十三五"期间,需要继续控制双高产业的发展,强化"前端"污染物控制减排,夯实结构减排的协同成效,加大工程减排的实施,缩小减排工程能力和实际减排效果的�The pollutant emission reduction is mainly achieved by engineering reduction,structural reduction,and administration reduction in China. SO2 emissions has been declining in China recently. this paper selected three key industries（ electricity generation,steel and cement） to measure the effect of the emission reduction of SO2 during the ＂11thFive Year Plan＂and the ＂12th Five Year Plan＂period,and the synergy effect of CO2 emission reduction. The main results of this work show： during the period of＂11thFive Year Plan＂,pollutant emission reductions of three key sectors surpassed 10 million tons,among which engineering reduction contributed to 7 million tons and structural emission reduction contributed to 3 million tons. The synergy effects caused by structural emission reduction achieved 0. 7 billion tons CO2 emission reduction while engineering emission reduction increased 5 million tons of CO2 emissions,net synergy of CO2 emission reduction reached about 0. 7- 0. 8 billion tons. While during the previous years of 12 thfive year plan,the pollutant emission reductions reached 4 million tons and 3. 5 million tons from engineering emission reduction and 400 thousand tons from structural emission reductions. Synergy effects showed that total 0. 172 billion CO2 emission reductions have been realized,structural emission reductions reduced about 0. 174 billion while engineering emission reductions increased by 2 million tons.Both engineering reduction and structural reduction mainly reduce pollutant emissions within three sectors,but different contributions depending on different sector. During＂11thfive year plan＂period,electricity generation emission reduction most relied on engineering effects while steel and cement sectors realize emission reduction most relying on administrative command shutting down lag behand product capacity or units. This illustrated that technology played important role in electricity generation pollutant emission reductions while other two sectors most relied on structural

关 键 词：污染物减排 协同控制 结构效应 工程效应 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]