汉江中下游流域降水时空规律分析及干旱预测  

RESEARCH ON PRECIPITATION SPATIAL-TEMPORAL REGULATION AND DROUGHT PREDICTION IN MIDDLE-LOWER HAN RIVER BASIN

作　　者：张逸飞[1] 张中旺[1,2] 龚佑海 

机构地区：[1]湖北文理学院地理系,湖北襄阳441053 [2]中国地质大学地球科学学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《环境工程》2016年第2期150-154,共5页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101544);湖北省科技支撑计划项目(2014BDF044);湖北省人文社科重点研究基地鄂西北区域发展研究中心项目(2014JDY0023);襄阳市研究与开发计划项目(20140039)

摘　　要：近年来汉江中下游流域连续发生干旱,随着越来越多跨流域调水工程的实施,势必加剧该流域的旱情。所以,研究汉江中下游流域降水序列及干旱预测显得尤为重要。应用汉江中下游12个站点50年(1963—2012年)降水资料,通过克里金插值法和一元线性回归方程分析其降水的空间分布及时间变化规律。选取1963—2006年的数据建立灾变预测模型GM(1,1),预测该区域未来一定时期内可能发生干旱的年份。经过多种检验,模型精度较高,预测结果也基本与实际相符。Recently,continuous drought occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Han River valley. With more and more trans basin water diversion projects were opened,droughts of the basin would certainly be intensified. So,it was essential to study the precipitation sequence and drought prediction in Han River basin middle and downstream. This article used the annual precipitation data in 12 sites of the middle and lower reaches of Han River in 50 years（ 1953 to 2010）,the spatial distribution and temporal variation of precipitation was analyzed by using unitary linear regression analysis and Kriging interpolation. The GM（ 1,1） model was established by data selected from 1963 to 2006,to predict the years of drought occurrence in the agivenperiod of future. Through a variety of inspection,the model showed a good precision and were well consistent with the basic facts.

关 键 词：汉江中下游 降水量 线性回归 克里金差值 时空分析 GM(1 1) 干旱预测 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]