开放性公共场所人群聚集风险和关键点评估方法  

Method for evaluating crowd risk and identifying critical nodes in open public places

作　　者：胡成[1,2] 郭婧婷[1] 李强[3] 陈晋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京市劳动保护科学研究所安全与应急管理研究室,北京100054 [3]北京师范大学资源学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第12期164-169,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(41371489)

摘　　要：为评估开放性公共场所人群聚集过程中蕴藏的拥挤踩踏风险,基于人群在开放性公共场所的路径选择行为调查,综合考虑人群在日常聚集状态下的空间占用特征,以及应急疏散状态下可利用的道路网结构特征,建立定量评估开放性公共场所中高风险关键节点的方法:节点访问频率法(NAFM)和组合临界簇模型(CCCM)。在北京什刹海景区应用2种方法,分别得到该区域常态下和应急疏散状态下的人群风险关键点。结果表明:相对于NAFM,CCCM得到的人群风险关键点不仅包含人群聚集程度,还考虑了开放性公共场所道路结构,能够综合反映人群聚集风险。In order to assess risks involved with mass of people gathering in open public places such as a crowed risk,two methods,NAFM and CCCM,were worked out for identifying key nodes with high risk for crowd mass on the basis of an integrated consideration of spatial occupation characters of crowds in daily situations and available road network structures under evacuating conditions,which were known to the authors after their investigation of crowd＇s route selection in open public areas. These two methods were applied to Shichahai scenic area in Beijing and two types of critical nodes were reached. Compared with NAFM,CCCM demonstrates the risk of crowd mass better and has wider applicability since it not only involves the crowd mass level but also considers the road network structure.

关 键 词：开放性公共场所 人群聚集风险 节点访问频率法(NAFM) 组合临界簇模型(CCCM) 风险关键点 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]