油气管网可靠性计算方法评述  

Reliability calculation methods for oil and gas pipeline network

作　　者：薛鲁宁[1] 郑洪龙[1] 周利剑[1] 李明菲[1] 李在蓉[1] 程万洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道科技研究中心油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室

出　　处：《油气储运》2016年第2期124-129,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科技攻关项目"大型天然气管网系统可靠性研究";2014B-3411

摘　　要：油气管网可靠性研究是提升管网风险评价定量化水平的必然选择,充分吸收可靠性的现有研究成果,对油气管网的可靠性研究具有重要的促进作用。从单元、系统、网络3个层面总结了目前比较典型的可靠性计算方法,介绍了不同方法的计算思路,结合油气管网的特点,分析了不同方法在油气管网可靠性计算中的应用前景。对于单元的可靠性计算,概率统计法和机理建模法是应用最多、发展最成熟的方法;对于系统的可靠性计算,布尔法和马尔科夫方法在其他行业应用都比较成熟,而马尔可夫方法在处理单元的共因失效和相关失效方面更具优势;对于油气管网网络可靠性的计算,目前的连通可靠度计算方法可以直接应用,而容量可靠度理论尚需根据油气管网的自身运行特点进行发展。Reliability research is inevitable for improving the quantification level of risk assessment for oil and gas pipeline network. In this regard, summarization of existing reliability researches is extremely meaningful. In this paper, typical reliability calculation methods are discussed in respect of element, system and network, and their calculation principles are introduced. Considering the features of oil and gas pipeline network, application prospects of these methods are analyzed. Particularly, probability statistic method and mechanism modeling method are the most widely used and mature options for reliability calculation of element. Boolean method and Markov method are maturely used in reliability calculation for systems in other industries, and Markov method has advantages in avoiding common cause failure and dependent failure of element. Connectivity reliability method can be directly applied in reliability calculation for oil and gas pipeline network, while volume reliability method has yet to be raised depending on the operational features of the network. （4 Figures, 1 Table, 15 References）

关 键 词：油气管网 可靠性 单元 系统 网络 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]