1961—2013年青海省雷暴变化特征分析及趋势预测  

Thunderstorm Characteristics Analysis and Thunderstorm Tendency Forecast in Qinghai from 1961 to 2013

作　　者：康晓燕[1] 周万福[1] 金惠瑛[1] 王黎俊[1] 马玉岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省人工影响天气办公室,西宁810001

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第5期144-151,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于三江源复杂地形下人工增雨效果检验技术的研究"(41165008)

摘　　要：为深入了解青海省雷暴天气的气候变化特征以及该区域灾害性天气的预测提供参考依据,选用1961—2013年青海省45个台站4—9月的雷暴观测资料,通过趋势系数和旋转经验正交函数分解等,得到青海省植被生长季4—9月雷暴时空分布和变化特征,再利用R/S分析法计算Hurst指数以预测未来雷暴日数的变化趋势。结果表明:青海省4—9月累计雷暴日数平均为38天,7月雷暴日数最多,全省及大部台站的雷暴日数均呈现极显著减少趋势,M-K检验表明,5月和6月雷暴日数存在突变,突变从1998年开始。青海省雷暴日数呈现出南高北低,并且由东南向西北减少;雷暴日数的3个主要空间分布类型分别为东北区、南部区和中部区。Hurst指数预示,4—9月青海全省以及东北区和南部区的雷暴未来还将维持下降趋势,且持续性强度很高,而中部区将保持一种较稳定状态。The paper aims to clarify the climatic characteristics of thunderstorm weather variations in QinghaiProvince and provide reference for meteorological forecast. The authors analyzed the thunderstorm observationdata from April to September of 45 stations in Qinghai Province during 1961-2013, and got the thunderstormspatial-temporal distribution and variation characteristics in the vegetation growing season by the trendcoefficient and the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and then predicted the thunderstorm change in thefuture using Hurst indexes of R/S method. The results indicated that the average thunderstorm day was 38 daysfrom April to September in Qinghai, and July had the most, the thunderstorm day observed by most of thestations in Qinghai Province presented a significantly decreasing trend; the M-K test indicated that thethunderstorm day had the mutation in May and June starting from 1998. The thunderstorm day was more in thesouth than that in the north, and decreased from southeast to northwest; and the three main spatial distributiontypes were northeastern, southern and middle region respectively from April to September. The decreasingtrend of thunderstorm in the whole province, northeastern and southern regions would be maintained in thefuture, and the persistence was strong. The thunderstorm change in the middle region would remain stability.

关 键 词：雷暴 趋势系数 旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF) 突变 R/S分析法 

分 类 号：P427.321[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]