基于实时大数据的潜在新兴技术敏捷预测:企业实践调查与研究趋势分析  

Agile Forecasting of Potentially Emerging Technology Based on Real-time Big-data:Investigation into Enterprise Practice and Analysis of Research Trend

作　　者：王翠波[1] 张玉峰[2] 吴金红[3] 艾丹祥[4] 刘文俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学管理学院,武汉430074 [2]武汉大学信息管理学院,武汉430072 [3]武汉纺织大学管理学院,武汉430073 [4]广东工业大学管理学院,广州510520

出　　处：《情报学报》2015年第11期1173-1180,共8页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“基于实时大数据的潜在新兴技术敏捷预测机制研究”(14CTQ017);中南民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“基于知识发现的技术创新智能挖掘系统研究”(CSQ12007)系列研究成果之一

摘　　要：准确揭示技术结构现状，主动发现潜在新兴技术并规划其发展，是提升技术预测水平的重要标志，也是技术竞争情报工作的重要内容。本文围绕战略性新兴产业，选取大中小微等不同规模与性质的若干企业进行网络调研，并对企业技术预测实践工作进行详尽分析，阐明其所表征的泛在性、一体化、纵深化等中高级发展阶段特性及所蕴含的全景描绘、快速分析、实时响应等半隐性需求。进一步围绕实践新阶段、新问题，深入探讨技术预测研究的挑战、机遇及趋势，提出构建基于实时大数据的潜在新兴技术敏捷预测机制，是深化技术预测体系的有效途径，并规划设计敏捷预测的研究框架。To accurately show the current technology structure and initiatively discover and plan potentially emerging technology, is of vital significance in the area of technology forecasting. That is the important part of Technology Competitive intelligence. This paper makes a detailed on-line investigation into the technology forecasting practice of varied enterprises belonging to the strategic emerging industries. Then, some advanced characteristics of the enterprise practice, such as ubiquitousness, integration and depth, are summarized. Some semi-implicit demands, including panoramically viewing, fastly analyzing, real timely responding, arc also revealed. Aimed at the problems of the new stage, this paper explores the challenges, opportunities and trends to deepen technology forecasting research, and suggests an efficient way by constructing an agile mechanism to forecast potentially emerging technology based on real-time big-data. Finally, a research frame of agile forecasting is discussed.

关 键 词：技术预测 实时大数据 潜在新兴技术 敏捷预测 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理] G350[经济管理—国民经济]