利用网络规模叠加法估计北京市大学生毒品使用人群规模  

The application of network scale-up methods on estimation of drug use in Beijing college students

作　　者：郭静[1] 薛莉萍[1] 范慧[1] 吴亚琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院社会医学教研室/人口与发展研究中心健康研究所,北京100872

出　　处：《中国学校卫生》2016年第1期7-10,共4页Chinese Journal of School Health

基　　金：中央高校基本科研基金项目(13XNC003)

摘　　要：目的利用网络规模叠加法估计北京在校大学生中毒品使用人群规模,为探讨在高校大学生中开展毒品预防教育提供参考依据。方法采用多阶段整群随机抽样的方法在高校开展大学生问卷调查,利用网络规模叠加法计算大学生的社交网络规模、利用调查对象对待事件人群的不同态度对其进行校正,在此基础上对大学生中毒品使用人群规模进行估计和校正。结果共调查2 005人,其中有效问卷1 776份,剔除1个已知人群和社交网络规模的异常值后,最终分析问卷1 761份。北京市大学生平均社交网络规模为97人。大学生毒品使用人群规模为3 447人,占在校大学生的0.42%。结论采用网络规模叠加法,通过随机抽样调查对大学生吸毒人群规模进行估计是可信的,但需对结果进行校正。Objective The network scale-up method（NSUM）was used to estimate the size of drug use in Beijing college students.Methods The cluster randomized sampling method was adopted to survey the college students,the NSUM was used to estimate the personal network size（C）which was adjusted by the co-efficients according to the attitude,then the drug user population in college students was estimated and adjusted.Results A total of 2005 college students were surveyed,and after eliminating one known population and outliers of C,there were 1 761 questionnaires in total.The average of C among Beijing college students was 97.Among Beijing College students,3 447 of them were drug users with the rate of 0.42%.Conclusion By random sampling,the NSUM can be used to estimate the drug user population in college students,but the result needed to be cautions in generalization.

关 键 词：计算机通信网络 中药毒品管理 健康教育 学生 

分 类 号：G479[文化科学—教育学] R195[文化科学—教育技术学]