弹性需求下路段行程时间波动的收敛性  

Convergence of Travel Time Fluctuations in Elastic Demand

作　　者：刘利娟[1,2] 张宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [2]国家物资储备局物资储备研究所,北京100037

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2016年第1期169-175,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70971003)~~

摘　　要：分析了弹性需求下路段行程时间的波动随道路长度延伸的收敛性.采用MITSIM仿真路段上车辆的行驶过程,根据仿真数据计算车辆通过该路段的预期行程时间,路段入口处的交通需求由需求函数及预期行程时间确定.通过记录所有车辆驶入、驶出该路段的时刻获取车辆的实际行程时间.用行程时间标准差系数来衡量行程时间波动性.数值算例对不同潜在交通需求的情况进行分析.结果表明,对任意确定的潜在需求,在弹性需求的作用下,路段行程时间的波动性都将随着路段长度的延长而趋向收敛,随着潜在交通需求的增加收敛速度减小,弹性系数的增加则促进行程时间波动的收敛.The convergence of travel time fluctuations in elastic demand is analyzed. MITSIM is adopted to simulate the process of the vehicles running on the road. The expected travel time is estimated by the simulation data before the vehicle go through the road segment. Traffic demand is determined by demand function and expected travel time. While one vehicle enters into the road, the time is recorded. When one vehicle exits the road, the time is recorded, too. The actual travel time of the vehicle is computed by the recorded data. Coefficient of standard deviation is used to measure the amplitude of travel time fluctuations. The results show that the travel time fluctuations converge as the extension of the road for any latent demand, that the convergence rate is reduced with the latent traffic demand increasing and that the convergence rate is improved with the elastic coefficient increasing. Keywords：

关 键 词：公路运输 收敛性 MITSIM 路段行程时间 弹性需求 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]