宁波市大气污染物暴露与肺癌发病及死亡灰色关联定量分析  

Quantitative Study by Grey Correlation Analysis on Association Between Air Pollution and Lung Cancer in Ningbo

作　　者：钱旭君 贺天锋[2] 谷少华[2,3] 刘起勇[3] 许国章[2] 沈月平[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计教研室,215123 [2]浙江省宁波市疾病预防控制中心 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,传染病预防控制国家重点实验室

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2016年第1期5-8,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955500);浙江省医药卫生项目(2014KYA202);宁波市科技计划项目(2014C50027)

摘　　要：目的定量评价宁波市大气污染与人群肺癌发病及死亡的关系。方法收集2006-2013年宁波市居民肺癌发病和死亡数据及2001-2013年宁波市大气污染资料,采用灰色关联分析方法计算不同污染物与肺癌发病率及死亡率的关联度,并对大气污染物导致肺癌的潜伏期进行定量分析。结果 SO_2及NO_2对宁波市居民肺癌发病及死亡影响最大。2003-2007年SO_2浓度变化序列对2008-2012年肺癌死亡率参考序列影响最大,关联系数为0.86,潜伏期为4年;2002-2006年NO_2浓度变化序列对2008-2012年肺癌死亡率参考序列影响最大,关联系数为0.87,潜伏期为5年;2003-2007年PM10浓度变化序列对2008-2012年肺癌死亡率参考序列影响最大,关联系数为0.85,潜伏期为4年;2006-2010年烟尘比较序列对2008-2012年肺癌死亡率参考序列影响最大,关联系数为0.92,潜伏期为1年。结论 SO_2及NO_2是宁波市居民肺癌发病及死亡的主要影响指标,其致肺癌潜伏期分别为4年及5年。Objective To quantitatively evaluate the association of air pollution and the mortality and mobidity of lung cancer in the population in Ningbo. Methods The mortality and mobidity data of lung cancer during 2006 - 2013 and the air pollution data during 2001-2013 in Ningbo were collected, and the grey correlation analysis method was applied to calculate cor- relation degree between the morbidity, mortality of lung cancer and different pollutants, and the latent period of lung cancer in- duced by air pollution was quantitatively analyzed. Results The most serious pollution factors affecting lung cancer incidence in Ningbo were NO2 and SO2. The most serious effect to reference sequence of lung cancer mortality during 2008-2012 were com- parison sequence of SO： during 2003-2007, sequence of NO2 level change during 2002 - 2006, sequence of PMm level change during 2003-2007 , the corresponding correlation coefficient was 0. 86,0. 87 and 0. 85 respectively, the corresponding latent peri- ods were 5 years,4 years and 1 year. Conclusion The most serious pollution factors affecting the mortality and mobidity of lung cancer in Ningbo were S02 and NO2, and the corresponding latent periods were 4 and 5 years.

关 键 词：肺癌 大气污染物 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]