基于Logistic模型的城市慢行交通出行者特性研究  

Urban Non-Motorized Travelers′ Characteristics Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：安睿[1] 刘圆圆[1] 韩军红 张兴宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2015年第6期26-32,共7页Transport Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51178055)

摘　　要：为了防治机动车污染,提升慢行交通系统使用率与服务水平,针对慢行交通出行者特性开展研究。以铜川市居民出行调查数据为基础,将其分为家庭属性、个人属性与出行特征属性3个类别,借助SPSS软件构建二元Logistic模型,以优势比(OR)为主要评判标准,从多种属性变量中辨识影响慢行交通使用的主要变量,阐述出行者特征。研究结果表明:步行出行距离一般小于3km,自行车出行距离小于5km,各种属性变量对慢行交通的选择有不同程度的影响,步行与自行车出行的影响变量也存在差异;女性更倾向于步行,而男性使用自行车的几率更高;非通勤出行以步行为主;交通工具保有量的提升会降低步行出行率,而对自行车出行基本不产生影响;家庭收入与是否选择慢行交通出行不存在显著关系。： To control motor vehicle pollution and further improve the usage rate and service level of non-motorized system, the non-motorized travelers＇ characteristics were studied. The travel survey data of Tongchuan was classified into three categories which were family, individual and travel characteristics. A Binary Logistic Model was established by SPSS and the Odds Ratio （OR） was taken as the main evaluation criterion to identify the main factors that influenced the usage of non-motorized vehicle and further describe the travelers＇ characteristics. The results show that the distance of walking is less than 3kin and that of cycling is less than 5km. Different attribute variables have different influence on the choice of non-motorized travel modes and the influence variables of walking and cycling also differ. Women prefer walking while men are more likely to choose cycling. Non-commuting travel are mainly carried out by walking. The increase of vehicle ownership will reduce walking but has little influence on cycling. There is no significant relationship between household income and non-motorized usage.

关 键 词：慢行交通 出行者特性 LOGISTIC模型 优势比 出行行为 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]