树干液流速率的ARIMA模型研究  

Research on Trunk Sap Flow Velocity ARIMA Model

作　　者：谢恒星[1,2] 张振华[3] 蔡焕杰[3] 王雨点 

机构地区：[1]陕西省多河流湿地生态环境重点实验室,陕西渭南714099 [2]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [3]鲁东大学地理与规划学院,山东烟台264025

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2015年第24期6383-6385,共3页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271236);西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室访问学者项目;陕西省多河流湿地生态环境重点实验室开放基金项目(SXSD1411);渭南师范学院育苗项目(14YKP003);渭南师范学院大学生科技创新项目(2014XK042)

摘　　要：应用ARIMA模型拟合了晴天的液流速率,与传统的时间序列模型进行了精度比较,并随机选取另外两个时段的液流速率进行了模型普适性分析。结果表明,应用ARIMA(1,2,1)模型液流速率拟合值与观测值回归方程的决定系数达到0.994,二者相关性极显著;与传统的二次滑动平均和二次指数平滑模型相比,液流速率相对误差处于±10%和±5%范围内的分别为90.909%和65.152%,拟合精度明显提高;分别应用ARIMA(1,2,2)和ARIMA(1,1,2)模型拟合9、10月的液流速率,拟合值与观测值的相关性均达到极显著水平。ARIMA模型可以明显提高树干液流速率的拟合精度。ARIMA model was applied to fit sap flow velocity in sunny day, fitting precision comparison to traditional time series model was conducted, and ARIMA model’s wide use was analyzed by choosing another two periods’ sap flow velocity data. Results showed that the determining coefficient of the regressive equation between fitted values and measured values of sap flow velocity in ARIMA （1,2,1） model was 0.994 with extreme significance. Compared with two-step moving average model and two-step ex-smooth model, the sap flow relative error between ±10% and ±5% were 90.909% and 65.152%, re-spectively. The relativity between fitted values and the measured values of sap flow velocity in Sep. and Oct. fitted by ARI-MA（1,2,2） model and ARIMA （1,1,2） model were extreme significance, too. In conclusion, ARIMA model could improve trunk sap flow fitting precision significantly.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 液流速率 拟合精度 

分 类 号：S792.26[农业科学—林木遗传育种]