Change of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in Response to Global Warming  

作　　者：Ran LIU Changlin CHEN Guihua WANG 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 31O012

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2016年第4期504-510,共7页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB 955601);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41206021 and 41125019);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA11010103)

摘　　要：Tropical cyclone heat potential （TCHP） in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5）. As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 （＋4.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway） scenario, The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26~C isotherm （D26）, the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26~C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM） is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.Tropical cyclone heat potential （TCHP） in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5）. As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 （＋4.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway） scenario, The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26~C isotherm （D26）, the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26~C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM） is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

关 键 词：tropical cyclone heat potential global warming CM1P5 OGCM 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]