基于累积前景理论的城市轨道交通线网规划方案决策  

Decision Model of Urban Rail Transit Network Planning Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：沈犁[1] 张桐[1] 戢小辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2016年第1期41-48,共8页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51108390)

摘　　要：针对城市轨道交通线网规划中线网方案评价指标体系缺乏统一性的情况,建立了基于定性与定量综合评选方法的城市轨道交通线网规划方案的评价指标体系。在考虑决策者风险态度对线网方案决策存在影响的基础上,提出了结合累积前景理论与灰色关联分析的线网规划方案的优化决策方法,构建了线网规划方案的综合前景最优化模型,通过对最优权向量的求解得到具有最大综合前景值的最优决策方案。采用上述方法对四川省某市轨道交通远景规划线网进行实例分析,其决策结果与推荐方案的一致性证实了该优化决策方法的可行性与有效性。In order to solve the disorder problem of the index system in a project evaluation, an evaluation index system for urban rail transit network planning was established, then, considering the risk attitude impact of the decision makers on the multi-index decision of the network planning, a grey correlation decision-making method was proposed based on the cumulative prospect theory. Then an optimization model for the maximum of the comprehensive prospects value was built up on the basis of cumulative prospect theory and grey correlation analysis; By solving the optimal weight vector, the optimal urban rail transit network project, which had the max comprehensive prospect value, was determined .Finally, the proposed method was applied to evaluate the urban rail transit network planning projects of a city in Sichuan, and the final decision results were consistent with the real situation and showed that the decision-making method was feasible and effective.

关 键 词：城市交通 城市轨道交通 线网规划方案 累积前景理论 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：U491.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]