中国经济周期的国际协同——基于非线性视角的实证分析  

International Synchronization of China's Business Cycle---- The Empirical Analysis Based on the Nonlinear Perspective

作　　者：粟壬波[1] 陈乐一[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2016年第3期1-11,共11页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"国际粮价对我国粮价的阶段性非对称传递效应研究"(15CJY065);国家社会科学基金青年项目"美国经济周期对中国经济的阶段性非对称传导及应对策略研究"(14CJL016);教育部人文社科资助项目"中美经济周期协动与美国经济周期阶段非对称性传导研究"(13YJC790082)

摘　　要：基于1990-2013年中国及其28个主要贸易伙伴的相关数据,在非线性框架内探讨中国经济周期国际协同在不同区制、不同国家组别间的差异。结果表明:在不同区制内国际协同的持续性存在非对称性;面对区制状态转换的冲击,中国经济的动态调整行为在持续时间、反应速度及调整幅度上存在差异;双边直接投资、产业结构相似度与金融开放程度对国际协同的影响存在国家异质性特征;贸易一体化对中国经济周期国际协同的影响存在产业结构的门槛效应。Based on the relevant data of China and its 28 major trading partners from 1990 to 2013, this paper discusses the differences of international synchronization of China＇s business cycle between different regimes and different countries to find that, the persistence of international coordination of China＇s business cycle in different regimes has asymmetric characteristics, and the dynamic adjustment of Chinese economy has the difference in the duration, the speed of response and the adjustment range while facing the impact of regime state conversion in the process of business cycle synchronization. Furthermore, bilateral direct investment, industrial structure similarity and the degree of bilateral financial openness are important factors that affect the international coordination of China＇s business cycle, but there are significant differences between different countries. Lastly, there exists threshold effects of industrial structure with regard to the effects of trade integration on international synchronization of China＇s business cycle.

关 键 词：经济周期协同 非线性 Markov区制转换模型 门槛回归 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]