“8·3”鲁甸地震小震大灾背景下次生泥石流的易发性分析  

Tendency prediction of debris flow triggered by“8·3”Ludian earthquake of Yunnan,China

作　　者：陈宁生[1] Javed IQBAL 刘丽红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,成都610041 [2]中国科学院大学地球科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《成都理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期102-108,共7页Journal of Chengdu University of Technology: Science & Technology Edition

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAK12B02)

摘　　要：2014年8月3日云南鲁甸地震诱发了大量次生地质灾害,研究表明此次地震"小震大灾"的原因是前期干旱导致土体强度降低,在暴雨作用下引发大量次生灾害。在小震大灾的岩土性质基础上,通过分析地形地貌、地质条件、地震活动和极端干湿气候对地质灾害发育的影响,建立地质灾害易发性评价指标,利用GIS空间分析技术对震后灾区泥石流易发性进行了快速定量评价。结果显示,地震灾区地质灾害高、中、低易发区面积分别为6 865.87km2、15 102.72km2、9 869.06km2。其中高易发区主要集中于金沙江与牛栏江沿线,呈带状分布,以及受地层岩性的影响呈岛状等不均匀分布,今后在进一步的极端气候影响下。A large number of secondary geological disasters occurred during the ＂8 · 3＂ Ludian earthquake of Yunnan Province. The disaster is resulted from the falling of soil strength duo to pre- drought and rainstorms. For assessment of secondary geological hazards, the effects of topography, geological conditions, earthquake and drought on debris flow development are analyzed, and the assessment indexes are established. A speedy quantitative assessment of hazards sensibility is exercised by using GIS spatial analysis technology. It indicates that the high probable, mid-probable, low probable geological disasters are 6865.84 kme, 15102.72 kme, 9896.06 km^2, respectively, and the high probable geological disasters distribute along the Jinsha River and Niulanjiang River. In the future, high probability of the debris flow hazard development exists under the condition of extreme climate influence.

关 键 词：鲁甸地震 极端气候 地质灾害 易发性评价 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]