海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败  

Strategic Choice and the Success and Failure of the Rise of the Land and Sea Geo-political Power

作　　者：姜鹏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学形势与政策研究中心,哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨工程大学外交学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2016年第2期23-36,127,共14页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AGJ002);中央高校基本科研“国家安全与国防建设智库立项”(HEUCFZ1614)

摘　　要：国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。The international system is a complex interactive system of interest. There are numerous strategic level doing-feedback modes in the system. The selection of geopolitical security strategy of political power determines its interaction with other key members of the system. The way of interaction determines possible structural pressures faced by the rising power and ultimately affect the result of the rising. Through this study,the following fact can be found. The strategic mode of the land and sea rising power can be divided into'regional land power'strategy,'global sea power'strategy,and the'regional/global land and sea'strategy. If the rising of great power has not yet formed a solid ground-based surrounding environment,then the pursuit of'regional land power'strategy is the best choice. If there is a stable land-based surrounding environment,the pursuit of'global sea power'strategy is the best. Due to the principle of'same color competition',the'land and sea'strategy may fall into security dilemma with neighboring countries and fighting with'global sea powers',leading to negative effects on its rising. In addition,the pursuit of a single'color complementary'principle is easy to make strategic alliances,thereby affecting the implementation of the rising strategy of great powers.

关 键 词：地缘政治 安全战略 崛起战略 中美关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]