基于系统动力学的“节事后低谷效应”管理对策研究  

Study on Managerial Countermeasures for "Post-Festival Valley Effect"--based on System Dynamics

作　　者：熊国钺[1] 孟新建[1] 袁婧祎 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2016年第1期43-50,共8页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：上海市社科基金项目(2010EZH005)

摘　　要：节事活动的兴起在为举办城市带来经济效益和城市品牌提升的同时,也为其随后的经济波动和下滑带来了可能的隐患,即"节事后低谷效应"。本文以上海世博会为例,在已有系统动力学模型的研究基础之上,通过对仿真结果的分析,提出利率调节、增加人均可支配收入、调整产业结构和增加大型投资可以有效降低"节事后低谷效应"出现的概率。The rise of Festival ＆ Special Event can bring economic benefits to the city and promote the city brand. At the same time, it can also cause possible risks in the subsequent economic fluctuations and decline, namely the ＂Post-Festival Valley Effect＂. In the case of Shanghai World Expo and based on the research of the existing system dynamics model, this paper proposes that adjusting interest rate, increasing per capita disposable income, adjusting industrial structure and increasing large-scale investments can effectively reduce the probability of the ＂Post-Festival Trough Effect＂ through analysis of the simulation results.

关 键 词：系统动力学 节事后低谷效应 仿真预测 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]