我国人群辐射致结肠癌危险系数估算  

Estimation of radiogenic colon cancer risk coefficients for Chinese population

作　　者：孙志娟[1] 王继先[1] 孙全富[2] 向剑[1] 赵永成[1] 张欣[1] 妥娅 樊赛军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京协和医学院&中国医学科学院放射医学研究所,天津市放射医学与分子核医学重点实验室,天津300192 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心辐射防护与核安全医学所辐射防护与核应急中国疾病预防控制中心重点实验室,北京100088

出　　处：《辐射防护》2016年第2期76-81,共6页Radiation Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(81502760);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金新教师类资助课题(20121106120041);协和青年基金和中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(33320140032);中国医学科学院放射医学研究所发展基金(1532、1543)

摘　　要：应用美国电离辐射生物效应委员会研发的日本原子弹爆炸幸存者辐射致结肠癌危险模型,选用相乘相加混合转移模型用于人群间危险转移,结合2012我国肿瘤登记年报发布的2009年结肠癌基线发病率,估算了我国人群辐射致结肠癌危险系数。在进行人群间转移危险过程中,根据肿瘤登记年报年龄组别发病率,进行曲线拟合,估算年龄别发病率。估算出我国人群辐射致结肠癌超额相对危险系数男性为0.74/Sv,女性为0.46/Sv(30岁受照,60岁患癌)。受照年龄越小,患癌年龄越小,此系数越大。我国人群辐射致结肠癌危险系数高于日本原子弹爆炸幸存者,二者随性别-年龄变化趋势相同。To estimate sex-age specific excess relative risk coefficients of colon cancer due to ionizing radiation for Chinese population, the following models and data were used, such as the risk models developed by BEIR VII committee （ Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation ）, population risk transfer model composed with both multiplicative and additive model and 2009 Chinese colon cancer baseline incidence. To obtain sex-age specific colon cancer baseline incidence, a curve fitting based on age group specific data was used. Excess relative risk coefficients of colon cancer for Chinese population are overall higher than that of Life Span Study in Japan and their sex-age tendency are similar. Excess relative risk coefficients here could provide key basis data for lifetime risk prediction and radiogenic causation judgment for colon cancer of Chinese population.

关 键 词：辐射致癌 危险转移模型 基线发病率 结肠癌 

分 类 号：R735.35[医药卫生—肿瘤]