基于回归模型的方法分析半干旱流域的降雨径流关系  

Methods Analysis on Rainfall-Runoff of Semi-Arid Basin Relationship Based on Regression Model

作　　者：余超[1] 晁丽君[2] 张梦婕[3] 朱家昌[4] 孙靖智 

机构地区：[1]河海大学理学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学文天学院,安徽马鞍山243031 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [4]天津市水务局,天津300074 [5]辽宁省水利厅,沈阳110003

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2016年第2期58-65,共8页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41130639;51179045;41101017;41201028);院级科研项目(WT14001ZD)

摘　　要：以半干旱流域大阁流域为例,通过回归模型改进半干旱流域降雨径流关系,用3种方法建立回归方程,然后对3种方法的结果进行评定。比较3种方法的合格率、许可误差和确定性系数。结果表明:采用方法 3在大阁流域模拟降雨径流达到了预报精度,很好地描述了降雨径流关系,从而为改进半干旱流域的降雨径流关系提供新思路。The relationship between rainfall and runoff of the semi-arid region was revised by using the regression model. Taking the Dage basin that is a semi-arid basin for example,three methods were used to build the regression equation. The percent of pass,the permissible error and the deterministic coefficient of the three methods were calculated and compared to evaluate the performance of them.The results indicate that the third method shows the best precision in Dage basin and has a good description of the relationship between rainfall and runoff in semiarid region. It is an effective approach to revise the relationship between rainfall and runoff in semiarid region.

关 键 词：回归模型 降雨径流 相关性 半干旱流域 评定方法 多因子 可分离变量 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]