中国湿地变化的驱动力分析  

Driving forces of wetland change in China

作　　者：宫宁[1,2] 牛振国[1] 齐伟[2] 张海英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]山东农业大学资源与环境学院,泰安271018

出　　处：《遥感学报》2016年第2期172-183,共12页NATIONAL REMOTE SENSING BULLETIN

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:41271423)~~

摘　　要：在全球气候变化及中国社会经济迅速发展的背景下,为了解中国湿地分布的时空动态特征及演化规律,以4期(1978年、1990年、2000年、2008年)中国湿地遥感制图数据和3期(1990年、2000年、2005年)土地利用数据为基础,同时考虑到对湿地变化的影响程度和数据的可获取性,选取12个影响因子(平均温度、平均湿度、累计降水量、人口数量、地区生产总值、农林牧渔产值、耕地面积、粮食产量、有效灌溉面积、水库库容量、除涝面积、治碱面积)研究1978年—2008年这30年间中国湿地变化的驱动机制。考虑到地理现象的空间非平稳性,本文采用地理加权回归的方法分析驱动因子对湿地变化的影响作用。地理加权回归作为一种局部线性回归方法,能够直观地反映湿地驱动因子对湿地作用的地域差异。结果表明:不同类型的湿地变化的主要影响因素不同,内陆湿地与温度、降水以及农业耕作灌溉等密切相关;人工湿地与经济发展水平和水利设施兴建密切相关;滨海湿地与农林牧渔产业和人口等密切相关。同一类型湿地变化的主要影响因素随着时间推移也有所变化,并且影响程度在地域上也存在较为明显的南北和东西差异。本次研究结果基本反映了1978年—2008年中国湿地变化的特征规律。The factors that influence China＇s wetlands are greatly complicated because of global climate changes and rapid economic development. This study investigates the dynamic characteristics and evolution laws of the temporal and spatial distribution of wetlands in China,as well as the driving forces behind these changes. Considering the relevance with wetland change and data availability, we chose 12 impact factors as independent variables（average temperature, average humidity, accumulative precipitation, population, gross regional domestic product, agricultural production value, agricultural acreage, grain production, effective irrigation area, reservoir capacity, drainage area, and saline-alkali management area）, in which three were natural factors and nine were social economic factors. The wetland change driving mechanism from 1978 to 2008 was studied using Geographically Weighted Regression（GWR） based on the wetland remote sense mapping in four years（1978, 1990, 2000, and 2008） and land use data in three years（1990, 2000, and 2005）. GWR is a local linear regression method that can effectively reflect the regional disparity of driving factors influencing wetlands and can present intuitive results. The main influencing factors of different types of wetlands vary. Inland wetlands were closely associated with average temperature, accumulative precipitation, and activities related to farming irrigation, whereas economic development and water infrastructure significantly influenced artificial wetlands. Coastal wetlands were closely associated with population and fishery industry. The main factors influencing a wetland changed with time, and obvious differences in the degree of influence over the space were observed. For inland wetlands, accumulative precipitation affected the northwest arid region from 1978 to 1990. The average temperature significantly positively correlated with inland wetlands in the north areas, where snow and permafrost were distributed from 1990 to 2000. Both of them can increase

关 键 词：湿地变化 驱动力 中国 地理加权回归 遥感 

分 类 号：P942[天文地球—自然地理学] P901