武广高速铁路运量后评价研究分析  

Study and Analysis on Post-evaluation of Transport Volume of Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway

作　　者：闻克宇 梁婧 周洋帆[2] 王龙 

机构地区：[1]中国铁路经济规划研究院运输研究所,北京100038 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2016年第3期62-66,71,共6页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(J2014Z004)

摘　　要：随着高速铁路的通车运营,已经积累大量的实际运量数据,为开展高速铁路运量后评价研究、提高运量预测精确度提供了重要的数据支撑。从旅客发送量、客流密度、距离别客流、客流构成、能力适应性等方面,分析武广高速铁路运营现状及特点。武广高速铁路运量后评价的研究表明,武广高速铁路运量设计基本合理,但由于相关高速铁路网尚未形成,换乘配套及基础设施配套不完善、既有线与高速铁路分工模式还不甚明确等因素,部分区段实现预测运量的难度较大。Following with opening to traffic of high-speed railways, a large quantity of actual transport volume data were accumulated, which provides important data support for developing study on post-evaluation of transport volume of high-speed railway and increasing the forecast precision of transport volume. From the aspects of passenger originated volume, density of passenger flow, passenger flow based on distance, passenger composition and capacity adaptation, through analyzing operation status and characteristics of Wuhan-Guangzhou highspeed railway and the post-evaluation of transport volume of the railway, the study result shows the design of transport volume of the railway was basically reasonable, but because of the factors such as relative high-speed railway network are not forming yet, the supporting facilities of transfer and infrastructure are not improved and the working division mode between exiting line and high-speed railway are not clearing, it is very difficult to realize the forecast of transport volume in partial sections.

关 键 词：武广高速铁路 运量后评价 客流构成 能力适应性 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]