甘肃省耕地数量变化与农业经济发展的计量关系研究  

Econometric analysis of relationship between change of cultivated land quantity and agricultural economic development in Gansu Province

作　　者：乔蕻强[1] 陈英[1] 程文仕[1] 王东[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第3期32-37,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71263003)资助

摘　　要：采用计量经济分析方法,应用协整理论和误差修正模型等,基于1978-2012年甘肃省数据统计,探讨了耕地数量变化与农业经济发展水平间的动态演进关系。研究结果表明:耕地数量变化与农业经济增长之间存在长期协整关系;耕地数量变化是农业经济发展的单向Granger原因,即农业经济发展是以牺牲耕地数量为代价的;农业经济发展对耕地数量的冲击力度大于耕地数量对于农业经济发展贡献的力度,耕地数量减少在促进农业经济发展上存在过度损失。In this paper,based on statistical data in Gansu Province from 1978 to 2012,the method of co- intergration analysis,error correction model,and so on,were applied to discuss the dynamic evolution relationship between change of cultivated land quantity and agricultural economic development level. The results show that there existed a long- term co- integration relationship between the number of changes in farmland and agricultural growth; cultivated land quantity was a unilateral Granger cause of economic development,that was to say,the agricultural economic development was at the expense of cultivated land quantity; agricultural economic development efforts on the impact of cultivated land were greater than efforts contribution of cultivated land quantity for agricultural economic development,and cultivated land reducing was the excessive loss for promoting agricultural economic development.

关 键 词：耕地数量变化 农业经济发展 计量经济 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]