我国马铃薯供求的影响因素及未来趋势分析  

Influence factors and future trend of potato supply and demand in China

作　　者：王静怡[1] 陈珏颖[1] 刘合光[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2015年第24期189-193,共5页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所基本科研业务费专项(0052014001-1-5;0052015001-1-4);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2015-06)

摘　　要：马铃薯被列为当今仅次于水稻、玉米和小麦的第四大粮食作物,随着我国马铃薯主粮化战略的实施,马铃薯对保障我国粮食安全具有关键作用。研究马铃薯供求市场情况,对马铃薯产业的可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究通过建立马铃薯局部均衡模型,分析我国马铃薯市场供给、需求以及进出口之间的相互关系和影响因素,结果表明,马铃薯总产量和消费量之间存在显著的相互作用关系。对2014—2025年我国马铃薯市场供求情况进行预测,结果显示,我国马铃薯的产量、消费量和进出口量都呈上涨趋势,2025年我国马铃薯产量将达到14 063.8万t,消费量将达到14 134.47万t。Potato is listed as the forth important grain crop after rice,maize and wheat. With the implementation of the strategy of potato as grain food,potato plays an important role in food safety. Analyzing the supply and demand market is important for the sustainable development of potato industry. By Partial equilibrium model, this paper analyzed the relationship among potato supply,demand,export and import and their influence factors,the results showed that the supply and demand of potato interacted with each other. This paper also forecasted the amount of potato supply and demand from 2014 to 2025,the results showed that the supply,demand and export,import of potato all had upward tendency,in 2025,the production and consumption of potato in China would achieve 140.63 and 141.34 million tons respectively.

关 键 词：马铃薯 局部均衡模型 预测 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]