2013—2014冬半年北京重污染天气气象传输条件分析及预报指数初建  

Analysis on Advective Transport Condition for Heavy Air Pollution Processes in Beijing During the 2013—2014 Winter Months and Design of Transmission Weather Index

作　　者：花丛 张恒德 张碧辉 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2016年第3期314-321,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306015);气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CMAGJ2014Z16)共同资助

摘　　要：本文结合地面常规观测资料和空气质量数据,利用聚类分析方法对2013—2014年冬半年北京地区的气象传输轨迹特征进行了统计分析,并通过潜在源区贡献法(PSCF)分析了污染物的潜在源区。结果表明:影响北京的气团主要来自西南、偏东和西北三条路径,其中西南和偏东路径中重污染天气的出现概率分别为56.58%和43.80%,为典型的污染物传输路径。潜在源区分析发现,高PSCF值主要对应西南和偏东轨迹气团所影响的山东西部、河北中南部及天津等地,其形成与下垫面排放及气团移动速度有关。在此基础上,结合PM_(2.5)排放源强度构建传输气象指数,经检验发现与PM_(2.5)浓度的生消变化有较好的一致性,且有约6 h的预报提前量。将传输指数与天气分析相结合,有助于加深对重污染天气成因的理解,并在预报评估中发挥参考作用。Surface observation and air quality data are applied for the analysis of advective transport characteristics in Beijing during the 2013 — 2014 winter months with cluster analysis.Meanwhile,potential source contribution function（PSCF） is used for the analysis of potential source area.The results show that air masses which influence Beijing mainly come from southwest,east and northwest,and the probability for heavy pollution weather in southwest and east paths are 56.58%and 43.80%respectively,which indicates the two directions are typical pollutants transmission paths.It is also revealed that high PSCF values caused by underlying emission and small air mass velocity cover the western Shandong,central and southern Hebei,Tianjin and other places.These places are affected by air masses from southwest and east.Combined with emission intensity of PM2.5,transmission weather index is designed based on the former conclusions.It is found that the index is consistent with PM2.5 concentration,and has a forecast of about 6 hours in advance.Therefore,combining transmission weather index with weather analysis may lead to a better understanding of heavy air pollution and play a reference role in forecasting operation and assessment.

关 键 词：重污染天气 聚类分析 PSCF 传输气象指数 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]