排放–水关系:中国未来电力情景  

Emission-Water Nexus: Future Electricity Generation in China

作　　者：潘柏林[1] 顾阿伦[1] 姜冬梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]郑州师范学院经济与管理学院,河南郑州450006

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第4期37-41,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"节能政策的节水协同效益评价方法研究"(71203120);国家自然科学基金项目"能源与水关系的优化与协同管理研究"(71573145)

摘　　要：能源、排放和水资源环境问题是事关中国全面建设小康社会、实现中国可持续发展的重要因素。由于中国未来电力的旺盛需求,尽管已经提出煤炭总量控制的设想,但是预计在短时间内,煤炭仍然是中国电力供应的主力。因此火力发电厂的能耗、排放和用水问题也尤为重要。文章基于目前中国未来电力情景的预测,分析了各种发电技术的排放和用水强度因子,测算了各电力情景的排放和用水消耗。结果显示,至2050年,中国电力系统的排放比2030年均有所下降,但是耗水量略有增加,主要是因为电力系统的装机转向可再生能源技术。目前在国家制订的宏观能源和气候变化政策中,没有考虑对于水资源的影响,而有关水资源的政策规划中也没有考虑到对能源消耗以及排放的影响。如何协调能源和水政策、规划之间的内在联系,优化二者之间的协同效果,是未来实现中国可持续发展与生态文明的重要内容之一。Energy, emission, water resource and environment problem are significant factors for China building a well-off society in an all-around way and achieving sustainable development. Though China has proposed her carbon emission control project, because of the abundant electricity demand in the future, coal is predicted to maintain its dominant position in power generation sector in short term. Therefore, energy, water consumption and emission of thermal power station are of great significance. Based on predictions of electricity scenarios in China, this paper analyzes the emission and water consumption factors of different generation technologies and further calculates total emission and water consumption respectively. It reveals that the emission of China electricity sector will decrease in 2050 compared wiith that of 2030, but water consumption will increase, which is mainly as a result of new installed capacity turning to sustainable energy technologies. However, China＇s formulate policy on macro-energy and climate without consideration of water issues, and policy on water resource neglects the influence on energy consumption and emission. How to coordinate policies on energy and water and utilize the coordination effect is of great importance for China to realize sustainable development and ecological civilization.

关 键 词：电力情景 排放–水关系 发电耗水强度 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]