气候变化对防洪安全影响研究面临的机遇与挑战  

Opportunity and Challenge of the Climate Change Impact on Flood Protection

作　　者：夏军[1,2,3] 石卫[1] 张利平[1,2,3] 佘敦先[1,2,3] 万蕙 邹磊[1] 张平[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学水安全研究院,湖北武汉430072 [3]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《四川大学学报（工程科学版）》2016年第2期7-13,共7页Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41571028;51279140)

摘　　要：全球气候变化背景下的防洪安全影响是国内外关注的热点问题。随着气候变暖、城镇化快速发展对地区强降水、洪涝等极端事件的影响,未来中国防洪安全保障将面临新的挑战。针对中国面临的严重洪涝灾害问题,阐述了从全球到中国气候变化对洪涝灾害影响的事实,综述了国内外最新的研究进展与前沿问题。最后提出了应对气候变化减少洪涝灾害的若干对策与建议:应加强气候变化对极端水文事件影响的基础研究,包括对水文非稳态(降水、洪水)序列和突变过程、非线性问题,陆地水文-区域气候耦合模式及气候变化影响下水循环要素时空变异与不确定性的研究;应加强应对气候变化防洪减灾的适应性对策研究,包括对气候变化影响的流域防洪规划适应性管理及气候影响的适应性能力和适应性方式的研究。以上对策与建议可为未来中国开展气候变化影响下的防洪安全研究提供借鉴。The climate change impact on flood protection is a global issue. With climate warming and the rapid development of urbanization,flood protection of China will face with the great challenge from the heavy rainfall and extreme events such as flood disaster. How the occurrence trends and variation of extreme floods under climate change,has become the forefront questions of research. Aiming at the serious flood disaster in China,the influence of climate change on flood disaster was described from the global to China,and the latest and cutting-edge researches were reviewed. Some countermeasures and suggestions for reducing the loss of flood disaster under climate change were proposed as the reference for the future study of climate change impact on flood protection. For example,the basic research of climate impacts on extreme hydrological events including non-stationarity resulting from climate and hydrological indices,the nonlinear problems and temporal variability of water cycle factors and uncertainty of hydrological and climate modelling should be strengthen. Adaptive measures research of flood protection including adaptive capability and manner under climate change should be also paid more attention.

关 键 词：气候变化 洪涝灾害 非平稳 研究进展 适应性对策 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]