基于廉价磋商的CVM假想偏差修正研究——以松花江流域为例  

A correction study of CVM hypothetical bias based on cheap talk for the Songhua River Basin

作　　者：佟锐[1] 敖长林[1] 焦扬[1] 高琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学工程学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第3期501-511,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171044)

摘　　要：作为国际上评价环境物品非使用价值最重要、应用最广泛的评估技术之一,条件价值评估法（CVM）因其假想性质引起学术界的广泛争议。本文通过评估松花江流域的非使用价值,引入并改进博弈论中的＂廉价磋商＂提示文本,通过分类设计问卷,识别假想偏差及幅度,验证＂廉价磋商＂的有效性和适用性,同时对＂替代物品＂提示内容的适用性、生态意识和认知态度对支付意愿的影响情况进行分析,得出廉价磋商方法下的受访者平均支付意愿为（248.71-258.81）元/a,推算出2012年松花江流域的非使用价值为（136.16-141.69）亿元/a,而传统方法下假想偏差占非使用价值比重为3.8%-5.5%。在此过程中,廉价磋商的效用和适用性得到了验证,假想偏差现象应受到重视;替代物品提示被证明不适用于环境物品的价值评估过程;生态意识和认知态度对受访者的支付意愿的影响应在决策过程中予以考虑。研究结论为政府相关政策的制定提供依据,同时也为＂廉价磋商＂在国内的应用积累一定经验。The Contingent Valuation Method（CVM）is one of the most widely used methods to estimate values,especially the non-use values of natural resources and environmental goods. As the hypothetical properties of elicitation,CVM has been disputed by the academic community for years. The purpose of this paper is to test the effect of cheap talk（CT）with promoting reminding scripts,to examine whether the reminder of substitutes is appropriate as an assistant means and to explore how ecological awareness and cognitive attitudes impact on respondents＇ willingness to pay（WTP）. To do so,we took the Songhua River Basin as our research object and designed questionnaires into three treatments classified by different reminding scripts. By contrast,the reminder of substitutes was not suitable for estimating non- use values of environmental goods in that the concept of substitutes made the respondents confused and resulted in biased WTP. Instead,the CT assisted by content of budget constraints worked better and relieved the hypothetical bias.The WTP per capita evaluated with CT was between 248.71CNY/a and 258.81CNY/a and the nonuse values of the Songhua River Basin were between 13.62 billion and 14.17 billion in 2012. The hypothetical bias cause by traditional survey methods accounted for 3.8% to 5.5% of total non-use value. Ecological awareness and cognitive attitudes influenced respondent WTP to different extents and this should be considered by decision- makers. These findings will be helpful in furthering research into CT and provides useful references for governmental environmental policy-making in China.

关 键 词：条件价值评估法 廉价磋商 提示文本 支付意愿 非使用价值评价 松花江流域 

分 类 号：F713.55[经济管理—市场营销]