人口结构变动对中国碳排放绩效的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Population Structure Changes on the Carbon Emission Performance of China

作　　者：黄杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院经济学院,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《西北人口》2016年第2期91-95,共5页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目:资源诅咒效应发生机制与规避策略研究:基于空间经济学视角(15XJC790006);国家社科基金项目:省域生态文明建设的绩效评价;标尺竞争效应与空间关联模式研究(13CJL071)

摘　　要：本文首先使用非径向、非角度的SBM-Undesirable模型对我国30个省(市)区2000-2012年的碳排放绩效进行了测度,并利用Tobit模型进一步分析我国人口结构变动对各省(市)区碳排放绩效的影响。结果显示:(1)在样本考察期内,我国的碳排放绩效在逐渐提高,东部地区的碳排放绩效远高于全国及中西部地区的碳排放绩效,中部次之,西部最低;(2)劳动人口数量和受教育程度对我国的碳排放绩效具有正向的驱动作用,家庭规模的小型化、老龄化人口数量、人口城市化水平和经济增长对我国碳排放绩效的提高起阻碍作用。This paper use non-radial,non-angle SBM-Undesirable model measure the performance of carbon emission for 30 provinces in China covering the years from 2000 to 2012.And then,we try to use the panel data Tobit model to analyze the relation between population structures in the performance of carbon emissions.The study show that：first,In the sample period,China＇s carbon emission performance is improving gradually,and the eastern part of the carbon emission performance is far higher than the central and western regions,the central is lower than eastern,the west is the lowest;second,Labor population increasing and the level of education on China＇s carbon emission performance has positive driving action,the miniature of family size,and the number of aging population,the level of city and economic growth will inhibition on enhancement of China＇s carbon emission performance.

关 键 词：人口结构 碳排放绩效 SBM-Undesirable模型 面板Tobit模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]