2011-2012年武威市凉州区胃癌时空特征分析  

Analysis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of gastric cancer in Liangzhou District,Wuwei from 2011 to 2012

作　　者：廖伟斌 孙建国[1,2] 于国伟[3] 雍万铃 田德红[4] 王熙蓓 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [3]西北民族大学医学院西部环境健康研究所,甘肃兰州730030 [4]兰州大学公共卫生学院社医学与卫生事业管理研究所,甘肃兰州730030 [5]兰州大学公共卫生学院营养与食品卫生学研究所,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2016年第3期257-261,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金(1308RJZA226)

摘　　要：目的 探究2011-2012年武威市凉州区胃癌发病的时空分布特征。方法 利用空间经验贝叶斯平滑、时空扫描统计量分析方法,对胃癌发病数据进行分析。结果 平滑后的胃癌发病率高低值地区分布集中,有明显的聚集趋势。纯空间扫描与时空扫描均探测到该地区胃癌发病存在聚集性,纯空间扫描结果包括永昌镇、五和乡、洪祥镇等三个聚集区,扫描时间为2011-2012年;时空扫描同样得到三个聚集区,但在聚集区类别和大小上与空间扫描存在差异,其聚集时间为2011年1月1日-2011年12月31日。男女性时空扫描结果表明男女性胃癌发病也具有聚集性,且女性聚集区范围大于男性。结论 武威市胃癌发病持续走高,防控工作严峻。结合空间经验贝叶斯平滑、时空扫描统计量方法,能够克服区域人口间的差异,准确的找出胃癌空间分布特征及时空聚集性。Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of gastric cancer in Liangzhou Dis- trict, Wuwei from 2011 to 2012. Methods Based on the data of gastric cancer in Wuwei during 2011 - 2012, spatial em- pirical bayesian smoothing and space-time scan statistics analysis were carried out. Results The distribution of high and low gastric cancer incidence regions were concentrated after smoothed, and presented an spatial cluster phenomenon. Both purely spatial scan and space-time scan detected gastric cancer clusters in wuwei, purely spatial scan analysis showed that there have three clusters in 2011 - 2012, which included Yongchang, Wuhe, Hongxiang and other countries; Space-time scan analysis identified three spatiotemporal clusters in January 1,2011 to December 31,2011, but there had differences in cluster~ type and size between purely spatial scan and space-time scan. The result of space time scan statistics between male and female identified clusters in study area, and the cluster of female was larger than male. Conclusions The current gastric cancer incidence is still at a relative high level, the situation of prevent and control is not optimistic. The spatial empirical bayesian smoothing and space-time scan statistic method can overcome the differences among the regions, and find the spatial distribution of gastric cancer and spatial temporal clusters accurately.

关 键 词：胃癌 贝叶斯定理 数据分析 统计 

分 类 号：R735.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]