1957—2012年讨赖河流域降水变化特征  

Change of Precipitation in the Taolaihe River Basin for the Period of 1957-2012

作　　者：高妍[1] 冯起[2,3] 李宗省[3] 边国慧[1] 王钰[2] 苏索南 

机构地区：[1]陕西国际商贸学院,陕西咸阳712000 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [4]野牛沟国家气象站,青海祁连810400

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2016年第2期275-282,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：陕西省"百人计划"项目;中央高校项目(GK201101002);中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-04-05);中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M510219;2013T60899);2012年陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目中期成果(12JK1047)

摘　　要：在气象观测数据基础上,运用数理统计方法对讨赖河流域1957—2012年降水变化进行研究。结果表明：①20世纪60、80、90年代秋季降水量偏少,70年代及2000年以后偏多,其他季节20世纪70、90年代相对较少,80年代相对偏多;夏季降水2000年以后明显增加,年降水量60、70、90年代偏少,80年代及2000年以后偏多。②除春季降水略有下降、冬季无明显变化外,其他季节降水均呈增加趋势,夏季上升幅度最大且通过了显著性检验,秋季次之。③ 1957—2012年研究区降水量均存在26～30 a的长周期变化,此外,还存在15 a以及8 a左右的周期变化。④年、夏、秋、冬季降水量分别在1980、1972、2003、1970年突变增加,均通过了0.01的置信度水平检验,再次表明了讨赖河流域从暖干向暖湿转型的气候特征。In this paper,we analyzed the inter-decadal and inter-annual change of climate trends with the linear trends and the 5-year trend of sliding,tested the climate abrupt changes with the Mann-Kedall method,and studied the cycles of climate change with the wavelet analysis using the meteorological data from 2 stations during the period of 1957- 2012 in the Taolaihe River Basin. The conclusions are as follows： ① Autumn precipitation was relatively low in the 1960 s,1980s and 1990 s,but it was high in the 1970 s and after 2000,whiles precipitation in other seasons was also low in the 1970 s and 1990 s,respectively,and summer precipitation increased significantly after 2000;② Spring precipitation decreased slightly during the period of 1957- 2012,whiles there was no trend in winter precipitation,but precipitation increased obviously in other seasons,especially after the mid-1980s;③ There were the26- 30-year long-term periodic changes of precipitation in the study area during the period of 1957- 2012,and also the 15-year and 8-year periodic changes of seasonal and annual precipitation except that in winter; ④ There were the abrupt changes of annual,summer,autumn and winter precipitation in the years of 1980,1972,2003 and 1970 respectively,and these abrupt changes were all passed the confidence test at 0. 01 level. These indicated that the climate change turned from the ＂warming-drying＂pattern to a＂warming-wetting＂one in the Taolaihe River Basin.

关 键 词：气候变化 降水量 季节变化 突变 讨赖河 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]