购房者羊群行为对中国房价波动的影响研究  

The Effect of Buyers' Herd Behavior on House Price Fluctuation in China

作　　者：鞠方[1] 周佳梅[1] 彭李娜 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第2期87-93,共7页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(10BJL018);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71203190);湖南省社科基金资助项目(14BR05;14BR06);湖南省教育厅开放基金项目(15K121);湖南省教育厅重点项目(15A193)

摘　　要：羊群行为属于行为经济学的一部分,认为市场主体在信息环境不确定的情况下,其行为易受到其他参与主体的影响,模仿他人决策。基于Hwang和Samlton羊群行为测度方法(HS方法)及EGARCH模型,运用2003年1季度至2014年3季度我国30个省市房地产市场销售价格数据,验证我国房地产市场羊群行为的存在性,并分析购房者羊群行为对中国房地产价格波动的影响。结果表明:我国房地产市场羊群行为显著存在,且购房者羊群行为与房地产价格波动呈正相关关系。As a part of the behavioral finance,the theory of herd behavior holds the view that market entity＇s behavior is considerably influenced and inducted by other market participants under the circumstances of uncertain information.Based on Hwang and Samlton＇s herding measure method（HS）and EGARCH model,this article applies data of real estate market sale price in 30 provinces for the period2003Q1-2013Q3 to verify the existence of herd behavior and analyses the effect of buyer＇s herd behavior on China＇s real estate price fluctuations.The results show that the herd behavior does exist obviously in China＇s real estate market,and the herd behavior of home buyers and real estate price fluctuations is positively correlated.

关 键 词：羊群行为 行为经济学 房价波动 HS测度方法 

分 类 号：F406[经济管理—产业经济]