基于FTA失效评估的电脉冲除冰电源E-bayes可靠性分析  

An E-bayes Reliability Analysis of the EIDI Power Supply Based on FTA Failure Assessment

作　　者：刘琳[1] 葛红娟[1] 陈鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2016年第1期96-102,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

摘　　要：为了评估机载系统在无失效数据情况下的可靠性,以电脉冲除冰电源为例,提出了一种基于FTA失效评估的E-bayes可靠性分析方法。首先利用FTA分析方法得到电脉冲除冰电源系统失效率的解算值。然后将该值作为E-bayes估计的引入参数,估算第k+1次定时截尾试验的截尾时间,从而进行系统的可靠性评估及平均寿命预测。最后比较了基于FTA失效评估的E-bayes方法与传统E-bayes方法、综合E-bayes方法对电脉冲除冰电源系统平均寿命估算的稳健性,结果表明基于FTA失效评估的E-bayes方法在无失效数据情况下估算结果是稳健的,证明基于FTA失效评估的E-bayes方法在无失效数据可靠性评估中具有可行性、便于在工程中应用。An E-bayes reliability analysis method is proposed based on FTA Failure Assessment to evaluate the reliability of airborne equipment in case of zero-failure data.The failure rate of electro-impulse de-icing（EIDI）power supply is calculated by FTA analysis,and incorporated to the E-bayes estimation for computing the censored time for the k＋1fix-time censored test.Then the E-bayes method is used to estimate the average life of EIDI power supply.The robustness of the average life estimation of power supply is studied via a comparison of traditional E-bayes method,synthetic expected-bayes method and E-bayes reliability analysis method,based on FTA failure assessment.The results indicate that this E-bayes reliability analysis method based on FTA failure assessment is robust,feasible and convenient to be applied in engineering in the case of zero-failure data.

关 键 词：航空安全 可靠性评估 无失效数据 E-BAYES估计 故障树分析 稳健性 

分 类 号：V216[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]