基于灰色关联分析的企业战略风险评价及预警研究  

Risk Evaluate Method for Enterprise Strategic Based on Gray Correlation Analysis Method

作　　者：段万春[1] 李连璋 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第2期55-61,共7页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于界面管理的创新团队和谐管理机制构建研究"(71263031);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队"云南省组织行为与复杂行为决策创新团队"(2014cx05)建设项目

摘　　要：考虑战略风险内涵呈现出的战略情景、能力及可持续三方面特征,为弥补现有研究在风险评价可拓展性与连续性方面存在的不足,同时解决企业管理者战略风险意识薄弱、风险预警能力匮乏导致的企业盈利能力低、持续发展后劲不足以及生命周期短等现实困境,在引入灰色关联分析方法的基础上,通过融合功效系数法的分析策略及预警管理的研究框架,提出了一套针对企业战略风险多属性、多方案及连续评价的综合评价及预警方法;同时,以YO集团下属的16家子公司为样本进行了案例分析,案例结果得出各子公司的风险系数与实际情况较为相符,验证了方法的可行性、有效性。On the basis of the introduction of gray correlation analysis method, this research puts forward aset of enterprise strategic risk comprehensive evaluation and forewarning method, through the fusion of efficacycoefficient method and forewarning management by considering the three major features of strategic risk connota-tion of strategic situation, ability, and sustainability in order to compensate for the scalability and continuity in-sufficient in existing researches about risk assessment and address the weak enterprise managers strategic riskawareness, the risk of forewarning capability scarcity leading to low profitability, lack of stamina and short sus-tained development life cycle and other practical difficulties. Meanwhile, the research took 16 subsidiaries ofYO group company as case analyses. The case research results obtained from each risk factor subsidiaries areconsistent with the actual situation, verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：战略风险 风险评价 灰色关联 功效系数 预警管理 

分 类 号：F272.35[经济管理—企业管理]