检索规则说明:AND代表“并且”;OR代表“或者”;NOT代表“不包含”;(注意必须大写,运算符两边需空一格)
检 索 范 例 :范例一: (K=图书馆学 OR K=情报学) AND A=范并思 范例二:J=计算机应用与软件 AND (U=C++ OR U=Basic) NOT M=Visual
出 处:《上海海事大学学报》2016年第1期65-69,102,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University
基 金:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132015007);辽宁省东港市獐岛码头工程通航安全评估项目(80815040-92);山东海事局海事调查专家技术服务项目(80815007-92)
摘 要:为增强海上交通运输安全,运用灰色系统理论中的加权灰色关联分析和预测的基本原理,改进关联系数的计算方法,并考虑各序列因子在不同点处的权重差异,对辽宁水域2007—2013年的船舶交通事故进行分析.建立该水域船舶交通事故总数与事故类型及发生时间的关联矩阵,根据得到的加权灰色关联度寻求事故的发生规律.将传统灰色关联理论与加权灰色关联理论的关联结果进行对比,验证加权灰色关联理论具有较好的精确性和层次性.建立船舶交通事故总数的预测模型,并对该水域的交通形势进行预测,同时将预测模型结果与实际数据相比较,得到模型预测精度,证明该模型合理、可靠,可以为海上交通事故的预防提供指导和借鉴.To enhance maritime transportation safety,the basic principle of weighted grey correlation analysis and prediction in grey system theory is used to analyze the ship traffic accidents between 2007 and2013 in Liaoning waters,where the calculation method to correlation coefficients is optimized and the weight difference of different points of each sequence is considered. The correlation matrices between the total number of ship traffic accidents and accident types as well as their occurrence time are established,and the regularity of outbreak is sought based on the obtained weighted grey correlation degree. Through the comparison of the correlation results obtained respectively by the traditional grey correlation theory and the weighted grey correlation theory,it is verified that the weighted grey correlation theory is of better accuracy and hierarchy. The prediction model of the total number of ship traffic accidents is established to predict the traffic situation in the waters; then,the comparison is made between the prediction results andthe real data. The prediction precision of the model is obtained,which proves the reasonability and reliability of the model. It can provide some guidance for maritime traffic accident prevention.
关 键 词:海上交通事故 灰色理论 加权灰色关联理论 GM(1 1)预测模型 辽宁水域
分 类 号:U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]
正在载入数据...
正在载入数据...
正在载入数据...
正在载入数据...
正在载入数据...
正在载入数据...
正在载入数据...
正在链接到云南高校图书馆文献保障联盟下载...
云南高校图书馆联盟文献共享服务平台 版权所有©
您的IP:216.73.216.28