基于Leslie矩阵的水资源供需平衡灰色预测研究  

Based on the Leslie matrix gray model for balance of supply and demand of water resources

作　　者：刘帅[1] 袁汝华[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《贵州师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期22-27,共6页Journal of Guizhou Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40806018);国家水利公益性基金资助项目(201301055)

摘　　要：探索区域水资源供需平衡是生态环境保护的重要前提。选取影响水资源供需平衡的12个指标,采用Leslie转移矩阵模型对定量指标进行测算,并运用灰色预测模型对不确定性指标因素进行灰度预测。通过对南京市雨花台区的水资源供需进行实证分析,结果表明:该合成模型预测效果比传统Leslie矩阵和灰色预测效果好,拟合精度最高,预测精度有效的控制在5%之内。该模型拓宽了灰色预测模型在水资源供需平衡中的应用,对水资源的科学预测具有一定的意义。To explore the regional water resources supply and demand balance is the important premise of ecological environment protection. This paper selected 12 indicators in the supply and demand balance of water resources,then uses Leslie matrix model of quantitative indicators to measure and grey prediction model for gray prediction uncertainty index factors. Through the study of the empirical analysis of balance of supply and demand of water resources of Nanjing Yuhuatai district,and the results show that the prediction effect is better than traditional Leslie matrix and gray prediction effect,high fitting precision,accuracy effectively controlled within 5%. The model broaden the grey prediction model is applied in the balance of supply and demand of water resources,and also scientific prediction of water resources has a certain significance.

关 键 词：水资源 供需平衡 灰色系统 Leslie矩阵 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]