基于FT-GT模型的风电短期功率预测  

Short-period Wind Power Prediction Based on the FT-GT Model

作　　者：蔺佳骏 贾铁军[2] 肖惜明 张福杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院电气学院,上海201306 [2]上海电机学院电子信息学院,上海201306

出　　处：《电气自动化》2016年第2期31-32,79,共3页Electrical Automation

摘　　要：随着风电接入规模的增加,风电功率预测日益重要。研究了一种基于分形理论(FT)与灰色理论(GT)模型相结合的短期风电功率预测新方法。建立了基于分形理论的风力发电功率预测模型,并对模型进行了求解。使用灰色理论对分形模型的分维数进行优化,提高模型预测精度。使用FT-GT模型和灰色模型两种方法进行预测,并利用真实数据进行预测同时与实际值做出比对分析。仿真结果表明,该风电功率预测方法相对灰色模型具有较高的预测精度。With increasing integration of wind power into the power system,wind power prediction becomes more and more important. This paper proposes a new method of short-period wind power prediction based on the fractal theory（ FT） model combined with the grey theory（ GT） model. A prediction model is established for the wind power based on the FT,and model solution is completed. Using the GT,we optimize the fractal dimensions of the fractal model so as to improve model prediction accuracy. Predictions are made through the FT-GT model and grey model,respectively,and real data is used for prediction and compared with actual value. The simulation results show that the proposed wind power prediction method has a higher prediction accuracy than the grey model.

关 键 词：分形理论 灰色理论 风力发电 功率预测 分维数 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]