中国地级城市碳减排目标实现时间测算  

When Will 100 Chinese Cities Reach Peak Carbon?

作　　者：郑海涛[1] 胡杰[1] 王文涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [2]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第4期48-54,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划"我国绿色低碳发展的关键支撑政策与技术研究"(编号:2012BAC20B08)

摘　　要：应对气候变化联合声明使得中国城市碳减排工作日益重要。基于《城市温室气体核算国际标准》提供的方法,从各项能源消耗、工业产品生产、城市生活垃圾焚烧和城市绿地碳汇等四个方面测算了中国100个城市2002-2012年直接碳排放总量,根据城市的人均碳排放曲线将它们分成了高、中、低碳三类城市,分别包括10,36,54个城市。根据环境库兹涅茨曲线,针对不同的碳排放城市类型构建了2类碳排放与经济发展关系的经济计量模型。研究表明,中国城市碳排放轨迹遵循倒"U"型,但是各城市间的碳排放-经济模式存在巨大差异,包含至少五种:高-高碳城市呈现正"U"型发展轨迹,其余四类的发展模式都呈现倒"U"型,特别是中碳城市群;这四类发展模式存在不同的碳排放-经济发展曲线,存在不同的人均碳排放和碳排放总量的峰值;但是,低碳城市群碳排放与经济发展的倒U关系不是非常显著。利用该模型结果,基于各城市人均GDP发展速度,测算了各城市未来人均碳排放拐点和碳排放总量拐点的到达时间。测算结果表明,如果各城市仍然按照2012年前的碳排放-经济模式发展,那么仅有44%的城市能在2030年前顺利达峰。因此,达峰时间比较长的城市必须实施低碳发展战略,当中高碳城市类的人均碳排放峰值下降10%或者低碳城市类下降20%时,基本在2030年达峰。Joint Announcement on Climate Change makes it vital for Chinese cities to execute the work of carbon-cutting. The paper measures the quantity of direct carbon emission in 100 Chinese cities for the period from 2002 to 2012 in terms of the fuel combustion,industrial processes and product use,municipal waste incineration and carbon sinks in urban green space based on the method provided by Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions. These cities are classified into three categories based on the curve of carbon emission per capita： high carbon cities,medium carbon cities and low carbon cities which cover 10,36,54 cities,respectively. The paper sets up two kinds of econometric models which are used to analyze economic development-emission relationships for specific emission cities according to Kuznets curve. We found that,this relationship is the inverted U-shape one in Chinese cities,but there are the huge different relationship between emission and income among the different emission cities,including at less five patterns： Top emission cities have the U-shape relationship,while the other four categories have the inverted U shape. These four categories have the different patterns with the different emission peaks per capita and total emission peaks. However,due to its emission increasing slowly with the income rapid growth for low-carbon group,its inverted U relationship is not very significant. And then,supposed each city＇s GDP growth rate per capita over the next 50 years,the paper estimates when to reach the emission peak per capita and total emission peak for each city. The findings are that only 44% of cities can achieve the target in 2030 if the present emission-economic pattern has yet been kept by all of cities. If the cities with the peak time of more than 2030 implement low-carbon development strategies,they will reach the peak before 2030 when emission peak values per capita for medium-and high-carbon group decrease by 10%,or ones for low-carbon group decline by 20%.

关 键 词：城市碳排放 EKC模型 经济发展 城市差异 排放拐点 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]