复合链式结构下中国林业碳库系统测度模型构建  

Construction of China's Forestry Carbon Measuring Model Under the Chain of Compound Structure

作　　者：张旭芳[1,2,4] 杨红强[1,3,4] 袁恬[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037 [2]密西西比州立大学森林资源学院,MS39762 [3]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,江苏南京210093 [4]国家林业局林产品经济贸易研究中心,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第4期80-89,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”(编号:14AJY014);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“IPCC气候框架下中国林产品国际贸易的碳流动问题研究”(编号:13YJAZH114);江苏省高校“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人项目(编号:2012-12#);江苏省2015年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“气候变化背景下江苏省林业碳库的减排潜力分析”(编号:KYZZ15_0252)

摘　　要：温室气体上升导致的全球气候变暖问题不容忽视,增加森林碳汇和木质林产品碳储是缓解温室效应的有效途径。根据森林碳汇功能与林产品碳储功能的关联理论与模型,推导和改进包括森林子碳库、土壤子碳库及木质林产品子碳库在内的林业碳库核算模型及方法,以实现目标碳从森林碳库向木质林产品碳库的过渡与转移。基于气候变化背景下森林-林产品产业链的发展现状,构建包括森林子碳库和林产品子碳库的复合一体化林业碳库模型,使之为中国林业碳库的计量与评价提供判据。首先,对包含森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库在内的世界林业碳库的发展现状进行探讨,归纳和比较国内外主流的关联林业碳库评估方法模型,从而对中国林业碳库模型的构建提供理论背景支持和逻辑方法支撑。其次,分析现有中国林业碳库评估存在的优势和弊端,找出适合中国林业特点的国家碳库创新评估路径,运用政府间气候变化专门委员会指定的生产法的思路,通过分析目标碳在林产品产业链生产、加工等过程中的流入和支出,提出创新中国林业碳库的模型构想并对其系统内涵进行分析。最后,赋予中国林业碳库系统模型数学表达,分析其数理结构并进行逻辑演绎,在森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库两个复合链式体系下构建中国林业碳库系统测度模型(ForestProducts Carbon Model/FPCM)。Global warming has become an increasingly serious issue due to the build-up of greenhouse gases. Increasing the carbon sink of forests and the carbon storage of harvested wood products is an effective approach to alleviate the greenhouse effect. According to the theories and models on the carbon storage function of forest and harvested wood products, this study derives and improves accounting models and algorithm for the carbon pools of forest, soil and harvested wood products to evaluate the transition and transfer of carbon from forest carbon pool to harvested wood products carbon pool. Under the context of climate change and the current situation of the development of China＇ s forestry carbon pool, the study establishes a compound carbon measuring model including forest carbon pool and harvested wood products carbon pool based on a cascade industrial chain of Forest-Products, which contributes to the formation of criteria on measurement and evaluation for China＇ s forestry carbon pool. For this purpose, first of all, the study investigates the development status and internal mechanism of forestry carbon pool to offer theoretical support on the construction of structure in China＇ s forestry carbon pool system. It also provides logical methods to establish China＇ s forestry carbon pool model after summarizing and comparing the corresponding mainstream of the methods and models created by domestic or foreign studies on forestry carbon pool evaluation. Secondly, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses on the evaluation of current China＇s forestry carbon pool, and then concludes the creative evaluation path for forestry carbon pool in China. What＇ s more, combining and referencing many advanced thinking or methods such as adopting the ideas of Production Approach indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze the inflow and outflow of carbon during manufacture, producing and any other processes in this cascade industrial chain, which contributes to the formation of creative model o

关 键 词：林业碳库 森林 木质林产品 复合链式结构 碳库模型 

分 类 号：S7-9[农业科学—林学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]