基于时变参数的互联网信息服务业产品附随扩散模型研究  

Research on Contingent Diffusion Model of Internet Information Service Products Based on Time-varying Parameter

作　　者：卢安文[1] 吴晶莹[1] 陈华[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学经济管理学院,重庆400065

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2016年第7期211-216,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"互联网信息服务业市场行为演变与竞争秩序监管研究"(14BGL107);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"互联网信息服务产品扩散机制与监管模式研究"(11YJA630071)

摘　　要：互联网信息服务业产品具有附随扩散的特性,但鲜有将附随扩散模型引入互联网信息服务业的研究成果。传统的附随扩散模型由于未考虑参数的时变性将导致参数计算时的误差和预测精确性的下降,不利于指导快速发展变化的互联网企业制定相应的营销策略和产品发展策略。结合传统的附随扩散模型,考虑创新系数和模仿系数的时变性,探索研究基于时变参数的附随扩散模型的互联网信息服务业产品扩散机理。实证分析表明,时变参数的附随扩散模型具有更高的模拟精度和预测精度,可以更准确地描述互联网信息服务业产品的扩散特征,帮助企业更准确地预测产品发展趋势,制定发展策略,同时促进监管部门对互联网信息服务业市场竞争秩序进行有效监管。The internet information service products with characteristics of the contingent diffusion, but few research a- chievements has been introduced into the internet information service. And traditional contingent diffusion model doesn＇t consider time - varying parameter, which will cause the error of parameter calculation and the decline of prediction accura- cy, and it is not conducive to guide rapidly development of the Internet enterprises to formulate corresponding marketing strategy and product development strategy. Combined with the traditional contingent diffusion model, considering the time variation of the innovation coefficient and the imitation coefficient, exploring the diffusion mechanism of internet information service products based on time varying parameters with diffusion model. Empirical analysis shows that the time -varying parameters attached with diffusion model has higher simulation precision and prediction precision, describe diffusion char- acteristics of the products of Internet information services more accurately , help enterprises to predict the development trend of the product and make develop strategies more accurately, while promoting regulatory authorities for effective super- vision of the Internet information service.

关 键 词：互联网 信息服务业 时变参数 附随扩散 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]