通勤者路径选择行为及风险偏好调查分析  

Risk Preference Survey and Analysis in Commuter Route Choice Behavior

作　　者：王凯[1] 关宏志[1] 严海[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2016年第5期762-767,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(51338008)

摘　　要：由于不确定性而面对风险是交通系统的固有特征,因此通过通勤者个人属性特征、交通运行状态指标调查和心理实验对北京市朝阳区通勤者的风险偏好产生机理及特征进行实证研究.根据前景理论对风险偏好的定义,统计分析发现不同决策场景下通勤者的风险偏好差异显著.面对迟到,通勤者倾向于风险追求;面对早到,通勤者倾向于风险规避.线性判别分析研究发现早到时,风险偏好和个人社会属性特征相关;迟到时,风险偏好和交通系统运行状态相关.对线性判别模型的敏感性分析发现出发时间和出行频率是出行者风险偏好最敏感的指标.Risk produced by uncertatinty is an inherent feature of traffic system, so by a survey ofpersonal socioeconomic character, traffic conditions and psychology expriment, mechanism andcharacteristics of risk preference in commuters爷route choice behavior were studied. Considering thedefinition of risk preference in accordance with prospect theory, risk aversion and risk seeking wereresearched in gain domain and loss domain respectively with linear discriminant analysis. Result showsthat risk preference in gain domain and loss domain are quite different. In the gain domain commuters aremore likely to be risk aversion, which is related to the personal socioeconomic characters.

关 键 词：路径选择 前景理论 风险偏好 线性判别分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]