澳大利亚肉类产品对中国出口变动影响因素分析  

Variable Factors of Australian Meat Products Exports to China

作　　者：王纪元[1] 肖海峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业展望》2016年第2期69-73,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部和财政部"国家绒毛用羊产业技术体系产业经济研究"(CARS-40-20)

摘　　要：自1988年以来,澳大利亚对中国出口的肉类产品总额逐年增长,出口结构经历了多个阶段的调整变换c2015年中澳自由贸易区协定的签订将为中澳两国间肉类产品贸易带来前所未有的机遇和挑战。针对1988—2013年澳大利亚肉类产品对中国出口变动特征。采用恒定市场份额模型,对其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明,澳大利亚肉类产品对中国出口增长主要是由于中国对内类产品的需求规模增长、需求结构调整和澳大利亚肉类产品在中国肉类产品进口市场的综合竞争力提升所引起的,其中前者的作用力逐渐减弱,而后两者贡献率却不断上升。未来澳大利亚肉类户品对中国出口额仍将不断上升,但不会给中国肉类产业带来危机。Since 1988,the total amount of Australian meat products exports to China increased year by year the export structure has also undergone multiple phases of adjustment transformation.Sino-Australia Free Trade Agreement signed in 2015,which will bring unprecedented opportunities and challenges of China-Australia mea products trade.This paper using Constant Market Share model analyzed the characteristics and influence factors of changes in Australia meat products export to China in 1988-2013.Results showed that the Australian mea products to China＇s export growth was mainly due to China＇s demand growth,demand for meat products structun adjustment and the comprehensive competitiveness of ascension of Australian meat products in China mea products import market,of which the force of former was gradually decreasing,and the contribution rate of lattei two was rising.In the future Australian meat products to China＇s exports will still rising,but will not bring the crisis on China＇s meat industry.

关 键 词：肉类产品 出口 CMS模型 澳大利亚 

分 类 号：F756.11[经济管理—国际贸易] F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]