我国海冰灾害风险评估和区划研究  

A Study on Risk Assessment and Zoning of Sea Ice Disaster in China

作　　者：袁本坤[1,2] 曹丛华[1,2] 江崇波[1,2] 郭可彩[1,2] 黎舸[1,2] 商杰[1,2] 刘钦政[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266061 [2]山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室,山东青岛266061 [3]国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京100194

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第2期42-46,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家海洋公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201105016)

摘　　要：海冰灾害是我国渤海及黄海北部海域的主要海洋灾害之一。选取冰厚、密集度及冰期和各类承灾体密度、规模等作为评估指标,将我国主要结冰海区沿岸各地市级行政区所辖海域和综合划分的渤海7个海区作为基本评估单元,利用权重分析等方法,对我国的海冰灾害风险进行综合评估。在此基础上,结合海冰防灾减灾的实际需求对我国的海冰灾害风险进行空间区域的等级划分,并绘制风险等级分布图。所得结果较为真实地揭示了海冰灾害风险在我国主要结冰海区的分布状况,可为我国的海冰灾害风险管理、防灾减灾规划等提供依据。Sea ice disaster is one of the major marine disasters in the Bohai Sea and Northern Yellow Sea of China. In this paper,the thickness,concentration and period of sea ice and the concentration,scale of all kind of disaster-bearing bodies are selected as assessment index,and the coastal waters under the jurisdiction of every municipal administrative zone in the main frozen sea area in China and the comprehensive classification of seven areas in the Bohai Sea are selected as basic assessment unit,the risk of sea ice disaster in China is comprehensively assessed by weight analysis method etc.. On this basis,the risk of sea ice disaster in China is divided by the actual demand for risk of sea ice disaster,and the distribution of risk level is plotted. The results reveal the distribution for risk of sea ice disaster in China,which can provide the basis for the risk management and the planning of disaster prevention and reduction of sea ice disaster.

关 键 词：渤海 黄海北部 冰情 海冰灾害 风险评估和区划 致灾因子 承灾体 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P731[天文地球—海洋科学]