陕西安康近50年来极端气温指数变化研究  

Research on the Variation of Extreme Temperature Index in Ankang,Shaanxi in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：赵景波[1,2] 杨晓玉[2] 许永红[2] 周旗[1] 

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721007 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第2期89-94,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室项目(13JS012);国家自然科学基金项目(40672108)

摘　　要：利用1963-2012年陕西省安康市每日气温资料,运用线性拟合、累积距平、Morlet复数小波等方法对WMO发布的10种极端气温指数进行了计算和分析。结果表明,安康近50年来,极端最低温、热夜、暖夜、暖日都呈上升趋势,而极端最高温、夏日、冰日、霜日、冷夜、冷日呈下降趋势。各极端气温均存在27年左右的长周期,16年左右的中周期和6年左右的短周期。各气温指数存在突变,1980-1990年代是各气温指数的突变年。极端热指数呈增加趋势,热夜由1960年代至今平均增加了9 d,暖夜增加15 d,暖日增加3 d。极端天气冷指数呈下降趋势,冰日减少了0.4 d,霜日减少10 d,冷夜减少12 d,冷日减少9 d。安康极端气温的变化会使得该区旱灾、高温灾害、农业病虫害增加。Based on the daily temperature data from 1963 to 2012 of Ankang,10 kinds of extreme temperature indices which suggested by WMO are calculated by using the linear trend method,accumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that four indices including the minimum temperature,hot night,warm night and warm day are on the rise,while the six indices including the maximum temperature,summer day,ice day,frost day,cold night and cold day are on the decline in the Ankang region in recent 50 a. The extreme temperature indices has three type of cycles in change,that is the long cycle of 27 a,the middle cycle of 16 a and the short cycle of 6 a. The change of extreme temperature indices has mutations which occurred in the 1980 ＇s to1990＇s. The extreme thermal indices showed an increasing trend,such as hot night increased 9 d from 1960＇s to now,warm night increased 15 d and warm day increased 3 d. While,the extreme cold indices show a downward trend,such as ice day decreased 0. 4 d,frost day reduced 10 d,cold night reduced 12 d and cold day decreased 9d. The change of extreme temperature in Ankang will make the drought,high temperature,agricultural pests and diseases increased in the future.

关 键 词：极端气温 变化趋势 指数变化 周期规律 陕西安康 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]