中国地质灾害风险允许标准  

Risk Criteria of Geohazards in China

作　　者：徐继维[1,2] 张茂省[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]国土资源部黄土地质灾害重点实验室/中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第2期127-130,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"高山峡谷区域暴雨泥石流成灾临界阈值研究"(41302224);国土资源大调查项目"陕西省重要城镇地质灾害风险评估"(12120113008900)

摘　　要：风险允许标准,亦可称为风险可接受标准或风险评价标准,是指对一个具体风险的可容许程度进行分级评价的依据或准则。该文旨在简述风险允许标准的发展与定义,总结国内外地质灾害风险允许标准与原则。通过对2005-2014年我国因地质灾害而死亡的人数数据进行分析,结合当前风险允许标准的研究现状,提出我国风险允许标准应采用FN曲线与ALARP原则相结合的方法确定,得到我国地质灾害风险允许标准可接受风险的平均值为1.93×10-5/年,并以此确定我国地质灾害可接受风险水平FN曲线的上下限分别为1.0×10-4/年和1.0×10-5/年,为我国地质灾害风险评估提供依据。Risk criteria,also known as risk acceptance criteria or risk evaluation criterion,refers to a specific risk grading evaluation basis or permissible level of criteria. We describe the development and definition of risk criteria,reviewed and summarized risk criteria of geohazards at home and abroad. Considering the current research status of allowing risk criteria,the risk criteria in China was determined by FN curve and ALARP principle through analysis of the relation between the data of deaths caused by geohazard each year from 2005 to 2014. The results show the average standard of acceptable risk is 1. 93 × 10- 5/ a,the upper limit of acceptable risk level is 10- 4/ a（tolerable risk line） and the lower limit is 10- 5/ a,which providing a basis for risk assessment.

关 键 词：地质灾害 风险 允许标准 FN曲线 可接受风险 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]