北京市极端降水事件和应对策略分析  

Extreme Precipitation Events and Management Strategy in Beijing

作　　者：陈东辉[1,2] 汪结华[3] 宁贵财 张香香[4] 尚可政[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 [2]中国人民解放军93123部队 [3]中国人民解放军92493部队 [4]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第2期182-187,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家公益性(气象)行业专项项目(GYHY201106034);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41105109);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(lzujbky-2013-m03)

摘　　要：随着北京城市化进程的不断发展,极端降水造成的灾害性损失也越来越严重,有针对性的制定极端降水应急管理对策是降低灾害性损失的有效办法。基于1981-2014年北京地区20个常规气象站逐日降水资料,采用百分位法确定20个站点各自极端降水阈值,定义4个极端降水指数,对北京地区极端降水事件进行分析。结果表明:极端降水阈值的分布和极端降水量、极端降水强度、年最大日降水量的分布十分接近,大值区都分布在北京市城区(海淀、朝阳、丰台)和城区东北部(顺义、怀柔、密云、平谷),这些地区因极端降水强度大,面临的灾害性风险最高,是灾害应急管理重点关注的地区;北京市西部(斋堂、霞云岭)和西北部山区(佛爷顶、汤河口)虽然是极端降水日数的大值区,但由于北京地区特殊的地形和人口分布规律,这些地区并没有因为极端降水出现概率高而导致过大的灾害性损失。结合北京市极端降水灾害应急管理现状,提出从提高预报预警能力、加强城市基础设施建设、提高全民应急避险能力几个方面应对极端降水灾害的策略。The financing disaster losses caused by extreme precipitation extremes is becoming increasingly serious with the accelerating urbanization of Beijing,therefore an effective way to avoid enormous losses is to make corresponding risk management strategies. In this study,we first determine site-level rainfall threshold using percentile method,and then define four precipitation indexes to study the extreme rainfall events in Beijing,the dataset consists of daily-observed precipitation from 20 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2014. Our results show that,the distribution of extreme rain threshold coherent with the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation,as well as annual maximum rainfall,which mainly occur central and northeast of the city,hence these areas should be paid more attention when take risk management for their high risk caused by heavy rain. Contrarily,the mountain area in west and northwest Beijing does not experience too much loss even with maximum days of extreme precipitation; this is caused by particular topography and population distribution. Given the city＇s current emergency management,we suggest to improve the precipitation risk management strategy from improving the ability of early warning and forecasting,strengthening the city infrastructure construction and improving the public＇s ability of emergency avoiding.

关 键 词：北京市 极端降水 灾害 应急管理 应对策略 百分位法 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]