松花江干流依兰-佳木斯段近40年径流量时间序列分析  

The Time Series Analysis of Runoff of the Channel from Yilan to Jamusi in the Main Branch of the Songhua River in Recent Forty Years

作　　者：王春雷 邢贞相[2] 付强[2] 闫丹丹[2] 刘美鑫 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省黑河水文局,黑龙江黑河164300 [2]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2016年第4期29-32,37,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109036;51179032);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(E2015024);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20112325120009);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301096);黑龙江省级领军人才梯队后备带头人资助项目(500001);黑龙江省博士后启动金(LBH-Q12147);东北农业大学研究生科技创新项目(yjscx14070;yjscx14071)

摘　　要：准确获取径流量的时间序列特征,有助于水资源的开发利用和水利水电工程的规划运用。采用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变分析法、小波分析法对松花江流域依兰站和佳木斯站1972-2010年间的年径流量时间序列进行分析。结果表明:松花江依兰-佳木斯段的年径流量近40年来总体呈微弱下降趋势,佳木斯站年径流量下降趋势强于依兰站年径流量下降趋势,且均存在较明显的周期性变化规律,即存在以18、8和5a这3个时段为主周期的波动状态。整个研究河段年径流量时间突变明显,依兰站在1973年之前为上升趋势,1974-1983年为下降趋势,1984-2004年为上升趋势,2004年之后为下降趋势;佳木斯站在1973年之前为上升趋势,1974-1984年为下降趋势,1985-2002年为上升趋势,2002年之后为下降趋势;而且两站的年径流量突变趋势较为同步。小波预测结果表明2010以后,年径流量有增加趋势。To catch the characteristics of time serials of runoff in the main steam of the Songhua River is conducive to the rational development of water resources and programming of water conservancy and hydropower engineering.A trend analysis method,MannKendall abrupt change analysis,and wavelet analysis are used to analyze the time analysis of runoff in the main stream of the Songhua River based on runoff observed data of the Yilan and Jiamusi from 1972 to 2010.The results show that there are three main periods of 18 years,8years and 5years for annual runoff series.For the whole series of runoff in the main stream of the Songhua River,there are the following variation trends.In Yilan there was an upward trend from the year 1972 to 1973,then there was a downward trend from the year 1974 to 1983,after that there was an upward trend from the year 1984 to 2004,and then there was a downward trend of annual precipitation series.In Jiamusi there was an upward trend from the year 1972 to 1973,then there was a downward trend from the year 1974 to 1984,after that time there was an upward trend from the year 1985 to 2002,and then there was a downward trend of annual precipitation series.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 径流量 趋势分析法 Mann-Kendal突变分析法 小波分析 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P338[天文地球—水文科学]